林听论币

一路走來，扶搖直上，自74000關口一路空到70000，實盤鐵粉一路見證，艙位也是節節高升，單單止盈的快感完美掌控，利潤也是手到擒來，實盤短線波段一路都是風生水起，全程高能驚豔你的雙眼。

服不服？不想吹，空一切！

日線8連陽終結，反彈結束，下跌尚未到位
大概率繼續下跌，存在創新低的可能
姨太也同步看跌，均處於下跌節奏
以高空思路為主，不做多
空單拿不住就進廠，拿不住就跑外賣
要麼爆倉，要麼邁巴赫，在此一戰。

昨天的美聯儲會議維持原有利率的同時鮑威爾發話偏向鷹派，主要受戰爭能源衝擊和更高的通脹預期排除了降息的可能性，之前預測今年還會有2次降息預期，現在來看能有1次降息就很不錯了。
美元今日回升至100，美元走強強勢壓制風險類資產，又要開啟做空一切的時間了。

BTC，I believe the 5th wave at the weekly level has likely begun to decline!
If the daily MACD subsequently forms a bearish divergence at a high level, the certainty of the 5th wave decline would be even higher.
When the daily MACD forms a bearish divergence at a high level, the bullish momentum on the 4-hour level has been exhausted, the Fed's lack of interest rate cuts in March and April is bearish, and the consolidation time of the 4th wave has reached 40 days.
Multiple convergences have satisfied the conditions for the start of the 5th wave decline!

4小時已經很難看了，本輪拉伸結束了，想要反轉，必須是急跌下去第二根K線迅速拉回去並創出新高。放量下來，反彈估計也反彈不了多少
2點30鮑威爾講話但凡提到加息兩個字，幣圈就完蛋，關於操作，大餅反彈72600就空，姨太反彈2250可空，Sol反彈92繼續做空

還是來了，在絕對的盤感面前並不需要那麼花裡胡哨，過了今晚想窮都難！

Daily MACD bearish crossover at high levels, four-hour bullish momentum exhausted, and the negative impact of the Fed not cutting rates in March and April.
Under multiple converging bearish signals, BTC's dead cat bounce in wave 4 at the weekly level may have already ended. What follows next is a weekly-level wave 5 downtrend.

不出所料，空单吃了1800点！今晚是多头的最后逃命机会！大的要来了，要么直接砸盘，要么诱多再砸盘
今晚要么把狗庄电死，要么狗庄电死我，电棍已经充满电，用的国家电网，这样挨打的时候有家乡的味道！

談一下3月19號的美聯儲議息會議
這次美聯儲議息會議，市場幾乎已經一致預期：3月不會降息，所以結果本身大概率不會引發太大波動，基本已經被提前消化。
真正要看的有兩點。
第一是點陣圖。現在市場普遍認為降息會繼續往後推，可能2026年全年只降1-2次，第一次降息或許要到9月甚至更晚。如果點陣圖比預期更鷹派，比如只給一次降息，那對風險資產情緒會有明顯打擊。
第二是鮑威爾的講話。主要看他怎麼談油價、通膨和降息時間。只要出現「利率更高更久」這種表態，市場一般都會當成利空。
整體來看，市場已經提前在消化偏鷹的預期，會議本身更像是利空落地，關鍵就看鷹派程度會不會超出市場現在的預期。
#币圈

昨天沖高回落，上漲遇阻，
楔形結構仍然起到關鍵作用！
下跌趨勢線沒有突破之前，看跌！
需注意的是楔形結構會不會變旗形結構。

警惕BTC後續大跌的風險
日線收出一根上影線的小陰K線，並未成功站穩7.45萬上方，而是沖高回落，這裡可能視為假突破誘多
4小時來看多頭量能波動曲線：價格從6萬反彈到7.6萬，多頭量能呈現逐漸遞減狀態，可見，多頭力量已在衰竭和信心不足
另外明天是19號的美聯儲FOMC會議，預估未來三個月的降息概率均為0，因為石油價格上漲和通貨膨脹上升。
BTC價格已反彈至7.6萬，結合上面羅列的因素，BTC很可能這波反彈止步於7.6萬，將可能成為一個開啟中線下跌趨勢的變盤時間節點。

Continuing from the previous analysis, the morning showed bullish continuation, with BTC reaching around 76k as expected. The short positions reversed at 75k also pulling back as anticipated. For those already short, if BTC breaks through 74.6k again, it will rebound sharply—you can add small positions in real-time. If it doesn't break through, stay on the sidelines and wait for a pullback. Similarly, for ETH, if it breaks through 2336 again, you can add small positions. If it doesn't break through, wait and observe for a pullback.
Starting today, there's divergence between bulls and bears. Al

It's not a bull run, it's a typical short squeeze with more room to go up.
The bulls are gradually oscillating upward, gradually covering the short volume. Both US stocks and gold are declining, yet BTC is rising against the trend, which is quite abnormal and puzzling.
Overall, this is just a Wave 4 dead cat bounce at the weekly level. The bounce high will likely be below 80k. Currently breaking through 74.5k, the next level to watch is 77k.

$BTC 來談談ETH，這段次高點的反抽非常強勁，但只要價格仍在前高附近，做空依然是性價比最高的選擇。目前價格再次接近次高點，我已經進場做空，且形態為4小時級別。觀察價格即將觸及上升楔形和矩形的上邊沿壓力位置。
上升楔形是看跌形態，上方又屬於強壓力區域，並不容易突破，因此我對這波行情的預判仍然偏向誘多的概率較大。至於日線級別，雖然處於金叉趨勢，但成交量持續縮減。簡單來說，現在是處於金叉狀態，但價格放量偏弱，持續上下震盪。金叉可能正在被消化，一旦被消化，立刻會轉變為死叉，成交量持續被削弱，中線對多頭非常不利，這是漲勢衰減的信號。

Continuing from the last time, I established a short position at 72700. There are signs of a top forming on the smaller timeframes, and the price is about to touch the resistance line above. Since there's still some distance from the previous high, shorting offers better risk-reward than chasing longs, because there's very strong selling pressure above the previous high—it has failed to break through multiple times, and this time it will likely be a bull trap.
Secondly, the secondary high is showing a topping pattern. If my judgment is correct, the risk-reward is very favorable. Currently, it

Bitcoin (BTC) is at the end of a wedge consolidation phase
The major cycle remains in a downtrend, unable to effectively break through the 74k resistance level
Focus on shorting from above; you can place short orders near 73k-73.5k
I still firmly believe there's a high probability that Bitcoin will test the 60k support zone. Patience is key $BTC

黃金低開低走，有望下破5000大關
可能很多人比較疑惑，為什麼中東以及俄烏局勢愈演愈烈，黃金反而跌了，想必很多朋友閃過一個念頭，槍炮一響，黃金萬兩，避險情緒支撐金價，邏輯上沒問題，剛開始美伊爆發衝突的時候，黃金的確短暫上漲了，但影響有限。
影響黃金價格走勢是多面的，一但避險情緒消退，目前主導金價的，反而是全球通脹預期的擔憂，以及原油美元走強，對黃金的壓制，還有美聯儲對降息的預期削減，從而壓制金價，因此原油飆升，高開沖擊110美元/桶的同時，黃金低開低走，將延續弱勢跌破5000大關。
日內繼續高空操作為主，後續關注5100～20附近空，防守5120即可，看5000附近關鍵支撐，破位看4960-30附近

比特幣這個月的價格若是低於66500，漲幅將會是負數，就會形成6個月下跌，繼續刷新熊市的連跌紀錄，目前美國以色列和伊朗的衝突正在加劇，戰火打得越激烈，BTC下跌的概率越大