陈嘉冠A

今天是FOMC日
美聯儲預計將維持利率不變
而且這種情況可能會持續一段時間
總體來看
直到2026年都沒有完全計入一次降息
所以今年這可能不會成為一個被廣泛討論的話題
我個人很好奇鮑威爾對油價上漲的看法
以及如果衝突持續一段時間
這可能會如何影響他們的決策 ​​​

ETH successfully returned above the 0.03 level
This is quite a critical position in the short term
It consolidated within that small range for approximately 6 weeks that we observed
Now focusing on the 0.032 area
As a high timeframe level that needs to hold firm (Chen Jiaguan) ​​​

Bear market stage?
Currently equivalent to around August 2022
6-12 months away from the start of the next bull market
Hold steady, we can win (Chen Jiaguan) ​​​

BTC 4H
Final push targeting 80K
Oscillating uptrend accumulating at key large interval resistance level
75K key divergence point
Breakthrough goes to 78K-80K
If 75K breakthrough fails, this rebound round ends
4H still in uptrend
If bears keep shorting but can't push it down
Once it breaks through, acceleration is coming (Chen Jiaguang) ​​​

Weekly chart has three consecutive green candles now
Slowly climbed back from just over 60k to around 74k
Overall it's a weak rebound rhythm
Current price just broke above the 5-day moving average
Temporarily escaped from the previous panic decline
But the 10-day moving average is still pressing around 74,800
Still quite difficult to push upward
These days basically oscillating between 73,000 to 76,000
The fluctuation isn't that large
The bulls haven't dared to exert much force
Trading volume hasn't expanded much either
Indicates everyone is watching and waiting
In the short term, likely still

Past week
Some altcoins had some volatility
AI-related coins became the big winners again
Worth paying attention to this sector
and consider buying strong coins during pullbacks
However
I still hope to see BTC and ETH truly break through the current range first and then pay more attention to altcoins
This would give them more room to rebound (Chen Jiaguang) ​​​

BTC 4H
Charging towards 78K
Oscillating uptrend
At key levels, suitable for taking profits in batches on rallies
Before there are no obvious acceleration climax and reversal structures
Shorts need to wait （Chen Jiaguan） ​​​

BTC第三次嘗試突破
要真正對上漲趨勢更有信心，
希望可以看到它至少在一天或兩天內穩定在局部高點74K以上
這裡的空氣相當稀薄
因為下跌的速度很快
CME缺口仍然在84K
這將是一個可能觸及的水平
只要突破能夠保持

BTC技術上來說
今天期貨重新開盤後留下了一個小缺口
可以留意一下
如果價格開始進入那個區域
這一水平大致也與區間高點對齐
所以一如既往
價格不一定會到達那裡
但如果到了
通常值得關注
因為它可能成為一個局部反轉區域（陳嘉冠）​​​

13日便發文提示70k強支撐
週末亦是提示逼箜
今早71.7附近時再次提示繼續走強
後續就是看74k壓力
午後磐面已是如期而至74.4k
目前徘徊在74k下方
哆頭動能雖有減弱
但並未枯竭
箜頭的反撲沒有想象中的那麼迅猛
後續觀察還是看74壓力區的表現
箜頭還是需要等待機會

BTC的Coinbase溢价有所上升
尤其是上周
溢价一直保持稳定
这可能是由于策略和现货ETF的积累导致的
通常情况下
这比Coinbase溢价像我们在抛售期间看到的那样大幅折价时
更能表明市场的健康状况 ​​​

The daily chart has seven consecutive positive candles.
It's possible that bearish expectations were too strong.
Continuously squeezing shorts upward, unable to fall?
Everyone is replaying the June 2022 market action.
But it's also possible to replay the July 2022 market action.
Gradually squeezing shorts higher, shaking out stop losses little by little.
Still watching for an opportunity to sell near 74k.

当前4H级别目前处于典型的多头衰竭阶段:均线组死叉确认、MACD死叉伴随柱体放量，短期动能明显耗尽。
KDJ超卖虽带来技术性反弹需求，但历史规律显示， 在这种死叉+放量背景下，反弹多为修复性质，难以趋势性上涨。
若该位置企稳，可反弹至72k压力区，但上行动力有限
若有效跌破69k,将打开下行空间，68k承压，周尾大概率难出现单边大涨，前高73k短期内突破概率偏低。
除非出现显著增量资金(ETF连续大额净流入)或美联储超预期鸽派转向，否则当前结构不支持突破前高， 区间震荡+偏空概率占优。

2026年，BTC現貨ETF的資金流入總體上並沒有太大變化。
但我毫不懷疑，在未來幾年內，我們會看到累計ETF 資金流入超過$100B+的水平。
至於價格是否會沿著同樣的路徑走下去，我認為只是時間問題。每一美元這些ETF從更大的OG賣家或短期交易者手中吸收的資金，都會為長期建立一個更加穩固和多元化的供應和基礎。
2025年就是一個很好的例子。我們看到ETF的資金流入超過$20B+,而BTC在年底時幾乎處於下跌狀態。 顯然，從價格走勢的角度來看，這並不理想，但事實是我們確實有了這些資金流入，並且這些幣已經轉移到了ETF中，這為未來建立了一個更加穩固的基礎。 畢竟，想象一下如果沒有這些資金流入，價格可能會發生什麼。

BTC 4H
經過一天的多空大戰
今早選擇向上突破盤整區
目前走勢恢復震盪上漲
接下來測試72K區間的價格反應
如果繼續強勢的話
多頭能幹到75K
空頭需要等待機會

BTC 8-hour chart, ETH 12-hour chart
ETH has two major sell orders above 2158 with a total of over 40 million in chips
BTC 69 if it doesn't break 712, the short position chips will definitely be eaten up
The situation reversed today, Asia session didn't drop
Major chip distribution zones are all below now