歷經 2025 年 10 、 11 月驚濤駭浪般的劇烈震盪後，比特幣已連續數周在 8.5 萬至 9 萬美元區間整理。分析師指出，目前市場仍缺乏明確的利多催化劑，比特幣橫盤走勢恐怕將延續下去。
Hashdex 全球市場洞察主管 Gerry O’Shea 指出：「雖然未來幾周，美國貨幣政策的轉向或是國會加密貨幣法案的進展可能帶來些許利多，但就現階段來說，比特幣仍處於區間震盪格局。」
嘉信理財（Charles Schwab）旗下金融研究中心（Center for Financial Research）加密貨幣研究與策略主管 Jim Ferraioli 也抱持相對保守的看法。他指出，嘉信並不設定具體的比特幣價格目標，但整體來看，2026 年仍有機會是積極的一年，不過從加密貨幣市場的角度來看，這一年可能會相對「無聊」。
Jim Ferraioli 進一步分析，這波修正不僅顯著，更是資產邁向成熟的必經之路：「回顧 2022 年 11 月的低點，一路狂奔至去年 10 月創下的 126,000 美元歷史新高，比特幣在 3 年內翻漲 8 倍，市場現在正處於消化期，需要時間來沉澱這波巨大的漲幅。」
ETF 獨角戲：機構大鱷還在場邊觀望
值得注意的是，市場結構已悄然改變。在創下歷史新高後的幾個月裡，鏈上活動顯著降溫，取而代之的是 ETF 資金流向成為左右幣價的絕對主力。
Jim Ferraioli 指出：「交易手續費低迷、長期持有者獲利了結，加上交易所內的比特幣餘額降至低點，現在的行情走勢完全是由 ETF 資金流向所驅動。」
這種結構轉變雖然讓投資比特幣變得更親民，但也可能扭曲了短期的市場訊號。 Jim Ferraioli 補充說：
真正的機構大戶其實還沒全面進場，一旦相關立法出台，才有可能推動比特幣價格持續上漲。
「加密寒冬」來襲？
Hyperion DeFi 執行長 Hyunsu Jung 則指出，比特幣的敘事邏輯正在變動。隨著年初的 ETF 資金潮退去，數位資產相較於其他資產類別顯得黯然失色。在缺乏新一波機構資金或總體經濟轉向（如降息）的情況下，他預期，比特幣將維持「橫盤整理」。
金融科技公司 Fold 執行長 Will Reeves 的看法則更為直接，他認為這純粹是「供需週期」的問題：
比特幣目前處於嚴重被低估的狀態，市場正等待賣壓宣洩完畢，以及新一波買盤進場接手。
至於市場是否已步入新一輪「加密寒冬」，各方看法仍存在分歧。 Jim Ferraioli 表示：「按照傳統定義，比特幣無疑正處於熊市之中。但考慮到比特幣的高波動性，出現 30% 的修正其實也並不罕見。」
雖然比特幣與美股總是存在某種程度的連動，但它仍有自己的驅動力：貨幣供應量、通縮型的供應增長機制，以及最重要的採用率。而採用率能否突破，正是今年最大的問號。
MICA Daily｜預測市場再押注中東局勢惡化，提防週末市場動盪
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