✨The Last 24 Hours at the Ceasefire Table: Oil, Markets, and the 48-Day War
Recent briefings from Washington indicate that a comprehensive agreement with Iran is "very close," involving a 20-year freeze on its nuclear program and the return of enriched material. The administration has made it clear that attacks could resume if an agreement is not reached.
At the same time, a 10-day ceasefire was declared on the Israel-Lebanon line. The meeting between the two sides in Washington for the first time in 34 years immediately boosted risk appetite in the markets; the S&P 500 and Nasdaq extended their gains in the afternoon.
The oil front, however, is contradictory: While the White House argues that prices have fallen, Brent rose nearly 4% on Thursday to $99.4. The market is pricing in a supply shock due to the US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and the deployment of 10,000 additional troops to the region.
The situation is different in Congress: The House of Representatives passed the bill limiting war powers by a single vote (214-213), and the Senate rejected it by a vote of 47-52. The war is now in its 48th day since February 28th without congressional approval.
The Pentagon's message is harsh: "This is not a fair fight, we are watching you." Israel, meanwhile, is demanding a buffer zone in southern Lebanon in the event of a ceasefire.
🧐 Both diplomacy and deterrence are being played out simultaneously. If an agreement is reached, the Strait of Hormuz will open, oil prices will ease, and risky assets will be relieved. If not, the end of the ceasefire on April 22nd could trigger a new escalation.
#US-IranTalksVSTroopBuildup
Recent briefings from Washington indicate that a comprehensive agreement with Iran is "very close," involving a 20-year freeze on its nuclear program and the return of enriched material. The administration has made it clear that attacks could resume if an agreement is not reached.
At the same time, a 10-day ceasefire was declared on the Israel-Lebanon line. The meeting between the two sides in Washington for the first time in 34 years immediately boosted risk appetite in the markets; the S&P 500 and Nasdaq extended their gains in the afternoon.
The oil front, however, is contradictory: While the White House argues that prices have fallen, Brent rose nearly 4% on Thursday to $99.4. The market is pricing in a supply shock due to the US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and the deployment of 10,000 additional troops to the region.
The situation is different in Congress: The House of Representatives passed the bill limiting war powers by a single vote (214-213), and the Senate rejected it by a vote of 47-52. The war is now in its 48th day since February 28th without congressional approval.
The Pentagon's message is harsh: "This is not a fair fight, we are watching you." Israel, meanwhile, is demanding a buffer zone in southern Lebanon in the event of a ceasefire.
🧐 Both diplomacy and deterrence are being played out simultaneously. If an agreement is reached, the Strait of Hormuz will open, oil prices will ease, and risky assets will be relieved. If not, the end of the ceasefire on April 22nd could trigger a new escalation.
#US-IranTalksVSTroopBuildup
