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#gate廣場五月交易分享 Bitcoin's violent breakout, ETH's weak stagnation, market polarization intensifies
1. Bitcoin: The three-month slump ends, fierce tug-of-war around the 80k level. Today, BTC experienced a wide-range consolidation with volatile fluctuations. It surged from a low of $78,200 straight up to around $80,600, breaking through a key resistance level, then faced short-term profit-taking selling pressure, quickly retracing to a low of $78,100, completing a deep shakeout. In the evening session, the bulls regained strength, hitting a new intraday high of $80,749, finally closing steadily at $80,067.22. This is the first time since late January that Bitcoin has effectively stabilized above the $80k mark, signaling the end of a three-month downward correction phase. The $80k level, recognized as a psychological and technical core in the market, has seen repeated tug-of-war between bulls and bears, proving its strategic importance. It will likely become the key dividing line for short-term market trends.
2. Ethereum: Perfectly caught in a rebound, sideways consolidation hides hidden risks. Compared to BTC's strong breakout, ETH's performance shows clear weakness. ETH is quoted at $2,382.49, with a daily increase of only 0.91%, significantly outperforming BTC's 1.60% gain during the same period. It has been confined within a narrow range of $2,350–$2,400, showing no momentum to follow the broader market breakout. The intraday movement also exposes the bulls' fatigue: it surged to $2,397 in the morning, just shy of the critical resistance at $2,400, then quickly faced resistance and pulled back, unable to break through the pressure. Market fund flows also clearly show a polarization pattern: BTC's market share rose to 60.61%, while ETH's share slightly declined to 10.75%. Short-term funds are flocking to Bitcoin, completely abandoning Ethereum, and the rebound rally has yet to start.

#gate廣場五月交易分享 Bitcoin Price Forecast: BTC Surges to Three-Month High Driven by Derivatives
Bitcoin prices surged above $80,000 on Monday, reaching the highest level since the end of January. US-listed spot ETFs saw an inflow of $153.87 million last week, marking the fifth consecutive week of positive inflows. Traders should remain cautious, as the price increase is mainly driven by demand for perpetual contracts, while the spot market remains in contraction. The report indicates that the current market structure is more speculative than fundamental, similar to the pattern seen in the early stages of the 2022 bear market.
Bitcoin (BTC) prices surged above $80,000 on Monday, reaching the highest level since the end of January. Institutional demand supported this price rise, with spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recording over $153.87 million in inflows last week, marking the fifth consecutive week of positive inflows. Meanwhile, Bitcoin is approaching a key psychological level.
Analysts point out that the current market structure is more speculative than fundamental, similar to the pattern at the start of the 2022 bear market. Institutional demand remains strong as Bitcoin prices continue to rise, reaching a high of $80,635 on Monday after a mild consolidation last week.
Institutional demand supported the price increase and remains robust. SoSoValue data shows that Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded $153.87 million in inflows last week, continuing a streak of inflows for five weeks since early April. If this trend persists this week, Bitcoin could see further price gains.
Driven by Derivatives
CryptoQuant’s weekly report last week stated that Bitcoin’s April price increase was entirely fueled by the growth in demand for perpetual contracts. Recent Bitcoin price rises are more of a speculative rebound rather than driven by fundamentals, as spot demand remains in contraction. CryptoQuant analysts noted, “The demand for perpetual contracts was the sole driver of Bitcoin’s price increase in April, while obvious spot demand continued to shrink. This divergence—rising perpetual contract demand while spot demand contracts—indicates that the price rise is leveraged-driven rather than from new coin accumulation.
Historically, this configuration lacks the structural basis needed to sustain price increases and is usually resolved through adjustments after perpetual contract positions are unwound.” The current market structure resembles that of early 2022, when demand for perpetual contracts surged alone while spot demand contracted, a pattern that foreshadowed several months of subsequent price declines.
Analysts summarized, “This similarity does not guarantee identical outcomes but indicates that the current demand structure aligns with bearish precedents in history. Using on-chain demand decomposition applied across cycles, this pattern is seen as a reliable early indicator of price vulnerability.”
Bitcoin Price Forecast: BTC Approaches Key Psychological Level
As of Monday’s writing, Bitcoin traded above $79,700, maintaining a short-term bullish bias, with prices consolidating above the 50-day and 100-day exponential moving averages (EMA), which are clustered around the mid-$70k range. Bitcoin’s price is also above the 50% retracement level (drawn from January high to February low), approximately $78,962, and near the top of a horizontal parallel channel at $75,680, indicating that the broader upward trend remains supported. The daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains steady around 65, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has rebounded, suggesting ongoing bullish momentum. Resistance levels are first at the psychological level of $80,000, followed by around $82,193 near the 200-day EMA, and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at approximately $83,437, with higher resistance at about $84,410. Initial support is seen at the 50% retracement of $78,962, with additional buying interest near the upper boundary of the channel at $75,680, and the 100-day EMA slightly below $75,900 providing support. Deeper corrections could test the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and the 50-day EMA, located between $74,432 and $74,487, followed by the broader channel bottom and the key support zone around $63,000.

#Gate广场五月交易分享 Hot Tracks and Potential Coins
Hot Tracks:
Institution-level staking services - MAVAN platform leads the industry
Ethereum ecosystem - Benefiting from Wall Street tokenization and AI system demand
Bitcoin ETF-related products - Strong institutional allocation demand
Potential Coins:
ETH - Benefiting from tokenization trends and AI system demand, Tom Lee believes ETH will be viewed as both a store of value and a medium of exchange
BTC - Continuous institutional allocation, expected to break through $80,000 and challenge $100,000
BMNR - Bitmine stock, as the largest ETH treasury, has unique investment value

#Gate广场五月交易分享 The "Reflexivity" of the Market and Long-Termism
Soros's "Reflexivity Theory" states: Market participants' perceptions influence market reality, forming a "positive feedback" or "negative feedback" cycle.
The current "mania" in the BTC market is essentially a positive feedback loop: "Price rises → Public sentiment turns bullish → Retail investors enter → Price rises further." But caution is needed: when "consensus" becomes too uniform, the market often reverses.
Victory of Long-Termism: BTC's value stems from "decentralized consensus," "scarcity," and "censorship resistance"; these underlying logics remain unchanged despite short-term price fluctuations. Historical data shows that investors holding BTC for over 4 years have a profit probability exceeding 90%.
The "Gray Rhino" of Risks: Regulatory policy changes, breakthroughs in quantum computing, global economic crises, etc., are "Gray Rhinos" looming over the market. Investors should reserve "risk reserves" to cope with black swan events.
Future Trend Predictions and Recommendations
1. Short-term (1-2 weeks): Consolidation and buildup, waiting for a high-probability directional event: BTC oscillates between $78,000 and $82,000, testing the support at $80,000.
Key signals: If trading volume continues to shrink and the 4-hour MACD shows "bearish divergence," the risk of a pullback increases; conversely, if volume breaks through $82,000, a new rally could begin.
2. Mid-term (1-3 months): Break through previous highs, aiming for $100k?
Optimistic scenario: After breaking $82,000, resistance levels are sequentially $85,000, $90,000, and even challenging $100k.
Pessimistic scenario: If it falls below $78,000, it will retest $75,000-$76,000; this range is the "golden pit" for long-term positioning.
3. Long-term (more than 1 year): The "epic bull market" driven by halving cycles. If the 2028 halving occurs as scheduled, combined with institutional adoption and ecological innovation, BTC is expected to enter an "epic bull market" around 2027-2028, with a target price possibly surpassing $150k.
Finding Certainty in Uncertainty
The charm of the crypto market lies in its "uncertainty"; the wisdom of investing is to find "certainty" within that uncertainty. Whether it’s macro narratives, technical trend structures, or strategic choices from fans’ perspectives, they all ultimately point to one core: respect market laws, revere risks, and adhere to long-termism.

#Gate广场五月交易分享 Dogecoin (DOGE) Market Analysis
DOGE current quote: 0.1113 USDT, down 0.94% in 24 hours, but up 6.96% over 7 days, 22.89% over 30 days, and 25.80% over 90 days—medium-term trend clearly upward, short-term is digesting profit-taking after previous breakout. Market cap approximately $17.17 billion, ranked 10th, belonging to large-cap blue-chip level, with stable liquidity.
Breakout and Overbought Battle
Technical indicators show a set of contradictory signals: all four-hour and daily moving average systems are bullish (MA7 > MA30 > MA120), PDI significantly suppresses MDI, ADX above 40, trend strength is unquestionable. But daily RSI hits 76.4, CCI 132.5, WR -12.2, all indicating overbought zones, and four-hour CCI is also in overbought territory.
Bollinger Bands opening upward and increasing momentum are positive signs, but the daily SAR is above the price (head and shoulders stop-loss line), suggesting the medium to long-term trend has not fully shifted bullish. The 24-hour volume-price relationship shows "shrinking volume for a pullback, possibly a shakeout or consolidation"—price dips slightly but volume is significantly below the 7-day average, typical of a pullback after a breakout confirmation rather than trend reversal.
Overall: DOGE broke out on April 30 from a 72-day sideways consolidation, surpassing all short-term EMAs, with momentum fully released, but multiple overbought indicators flashing simultaneously, indicating high risk of chasing the top in the short term. A pullback to the 0.108-0.110 range (the four-hour MA7 and previous consolidation upper boundary) would be a more reasonable entry point for observation.
From Meme to Institutional Asset—Narrative Rewriting
The most noteworthy recent event isn't a whale address anomaly, but the listing of 21Shares Dogecoin ETF (TDOG) on Nasdaq in January, and in March, SEC/CFTC jointly classifying DOGE as a "digital commodity." These two events fundamentally change DOGE's asset positioning—it's no longer just a community-driven meme coin, but an institutional-grade asset endorsed by traditional finance channels and regulators.
The 10% surge on April 30 was directly catalyzed by the listing of 21Shares ETP on the European Xetra exchange, combined with ETF daily net inflows of $460k turning positive, and short positions being squeezed out by $25 million. On-chain whale data also supports this trend: 149 wallets holding a total of 10.85 billion DOGE (about $460k), hitting a new all-time high.
On May 1, Shuttle Pharmaceutical announced a $11 million PIPE funding to acquire United Dogecoin and plans to deploy 3,000 mining machines, targeting 1.5% of global DOGE mining capacity—signs of institutional involvement emerging in mining as well.
Additionally, progress on DogeOS smart contract layer and X Money payment channels is noteworthy, as these are shifting DOGE's narrative from "pure meme" toward "functional settlement tool." If implementation exceeds expectations, it could become a catalyst for next-stage price revaluation.
Sentiment Cooling but Slightly Positive
Social sentiment shows 33% positive and only 7% negative, with a net positive difference of 26 percentage points, overall optimistic. However, discussion activity has sharply declined over the past three days (posts from 68 down to 29, a 57% drop), with almost no influence from key opinion leaders, indicating the excitement after the breakout has subsided, and the market is entering a wait-and-see digestion phase. Community focus is on "breaking two-month highs" and "triangle pattern breakout," while traditional financial product discussions by 21Shares have also sparked some debate. But lacking new narratives, a short-term catalyst may be needed.
Currently, DOGE underperforms BTC (24-hour excess return -1.69%), relatively weak in the short term, but the medium-term pattern has already shifted structurally due to ETF and regulatory classification. The next key resistance is at 0.12; if volume breaks through, the upside could target 0.16-0.28. Conversely, if it continues to oscillate with shrinking volume in the overbought zone, a pullback to the 0.108-0.110 range is more likely. Infinite supply and a $17 billion market cap remain long-term structural constraints; caution is advised when chasing gains.
It’s worth noting that the pattern of three overbought indicators on the daily chart flashing while volume shrinks is rare—this "strong trend + overbought + volume contraction shakeout" usually means the trend hasn't changed, but timing for entry is critical.

#Gate13周年 Thirteen years of walking together through wind and rain, may you always be that open door.
Thirteen years ago, when blockchain was still an uncharted wilderness, a small site called Bit儿 quietly launched, becoming one of the earliest explorers' footholds.
At that time, there was no noise, no crowds, only a group of people who believed in "decentralization," silently coding behind the scenes, matching orders.
Thirteen years later, that small site changed its name—Gate.
The name changed, but the door remained open.
From Bit儿 to Gate.io, and now to the grand entrance today, each renaming is not a farewell but an opening of a bigger door.
50 million users have come in, 4,500 assets found markets here, Bitcoin reserve rate 147%, total reserve rate 122%—behind these numbers is a thirteen-year unwavering promise: I will safeguard your assets for you.
In these thirteen years, the industry has experienced too much.
Bull market celebrations, bear winter, regulatory waves, technological iterations...
How many platforms have vanished in cycles, how many names have been forgotten.
And Gate chose the hardest path—not chasing quick gains, but aiming for the long term.
Dr. Han said in an open letter: "We are committed to building something enduring."
This phrase sounds simple, but in an industry that chases hot topics every day, the determination to last is itself a form of courage.
This year's anniversary theme is "Your Gateway to iWeb3," and this is not just a slogan but a direction.
AI is reshaping how trading is done, TradFi is bridging traditional and digital boundaries, Web3 is moving from concept to daily life.
Gate has not stood on the sidelines watching—GateAI, Gate for AI, GateRouter, GateClaw, these names are not product lists but signposts to the future.
The partnership with Red Bull Racing is not just a brand collaboration; it symbolizes an attitude: on the track, speed and stability are equally important.
What I want to say most is the things not in the press releases—customer service still replying to user messages at 3 a.m., every piece of feedback and complaint taken seriously, systems that didn't crash during crashes, assets protected securely every time.
Thirteen years, Gate's greatest achievement is not size or ranking, but trust.
Trust is the most valuable asset, and also the most fragile—it takes thirteen years to build, but only a second to collapse.
And Gate has held it.
As a user registered for 2803 days, I have watched Gate transform from a "sufficient" platform to a "user-friendly" one, and now to a "desired" platform.
The threshold for VIP1 is low, but it means I chose to stay.
Staying because I believe this door will not close.
For the thirteenth anniversary, I send my best wishes:
May you continue to be that door in the next cycle—limitless, fearless, open.
May every iteration bring more people in, rather than pushing old users out.
May "lasting" be more than just words in an open letter, but a daily practice.
Thirteen years, for an industry, is already a long history.
But for a door, thirteen years is just the beginning of being pushed open.
Happy birthday, Gate🎉🎉🎉🌹🌹🌹
The door is still open, and we are still here ❤️❤️❤️

#Gate广场五月交易分享 Crypto Calendar
Today's Events (May 5):
At 00:50 AM, New York Federal Reserve Chair Williams delivers a speech; this is the voice of a permanent FOMC voting member, and the market will pick up on the Federal Reserve's policy stance.
At 07:00 AM, Ethena (ENA) unlocks approximately 172 million tokens, worth about $18.24 million. This is the largest token unlock event today, but ENA's market cap and liquidity are relatively small, so the overall market impact is limited. Opinion (OPN) unlocks 32.09 million tokens, worth about $5.3 million. The prediction market ETF is expected to take effect today; the specific impact remains to be seen.
Future Events (May 6-7):
On May 6 at 08:00, Hyperliquid (HYPE) unlocks about 9.92 million tokens, worth approximately $400 million. This is one of the largest token unlocks recently, and HYPE is a leading project in the derivatives trading sector; the proportion of the unlock scale relative to its circulating market cap warrants attention.
On May 7 at 00:00, RedStone (RED) unlocks 40.85 million tokens, worth about $5.5 million.
On May 7 at 07:50, the Bank of Japan releases the March monetary policy meeting minutes, which may influence yen arbitrage trading and global risk appetite.
On May 7, the voting deadline for the WLFI early supporter and founding team token unlock proposal.
On May 7, INFINIT investors and core contributors' token unlock.

#Gate13周年现场直击 What recent news events have influenced the movement of gold and crude oil? How should the future outlook for gold be analyzed in terms of bullish and bearish trends?
On Wednesday (April 22), during the Asia-Europe session, gold showed a rebound trend, after plunging up to 3% during Tuesday’s New York session. Following the extension of the US-Iran ceasefire agreement, the US dollar remained under pressure, and gold refreshed its intraday high, starting its rebound from the support level of $4705. President Trump announced the extension of the US-Iran ceasefire on Tuesday without specifying the duration, attempting to create conditions for peace negotiations. However, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard stated that Iran did not request an extension and threatened to break the blockade by force. The US still maintains a blockade on Iranian ships, and the deadlock in the Strait of Hormuz remains unresolved. The dollar’s decline was notably limited, and the rise in gold prices was also restrained, so gold bulls need to stay vigilant.
On Wednesday, the US did not release any major economic data, and the movement of the dollar and gold was mainly driven by geopolitical news, leading to increased market volatility. Meanwhile, US retail sales data performed strongly, with economists raising their Q1 economic growth forecasts, highlighting the resilience of the US economy. This directly suppressed the bearish momentum of the dollar. During this hearing, Waller fully disclosed the Federal Reserve’s reform blueprint, proposing a series of aggressive measures aimed at addressing current Fed operational pain points, which will profoundly impact gold trading logic. Market speculation suggests that the Fed might reduce bond purchases, cease reinvestments at maturity, encourage banks to buy government bonds, and reform to shrink its balance sheet, while also reforming to reduce its influence on the market. He explicitly proposed canceling the regular press conferences that became routine after the financial crisis, to completely reconstruct the Fed’s communication channels with the market; he also plans to abandon forward guidance, believing this tool cannot stabilize market expectations and instead constrains the Fed’s decision-making flexibility. More disruptively, Waller publicly dismissed the core PCE inflation index used by the Fed for years, calling it a rough guess of price trends, and decided to abandon this key monetary policy reference, breaking the long-standing policy analysis framework of the Fed. Some market skeptics viewed Waller’s reforms as merely political showmanship to appease Trump, but his series of measures are fundamentally aimed at implementing a policy mix of rate cuts and balance sheet reduction to lower long-term interest rates and ease the mortgage, credit card, and other consumer debt pressures on Americans. Waller stated plainly that the Fed’s long-term policy mistakes led to runaway inflation after the pandemic, causing it to lose credibility in the market. Only by fundamentally reshaping its operational model can it rebuild trust and achieve rate cuts. For gold trading, rate cut expectations are theoretically bullish for interest-free gold, but simultaneous balance sheet reduction will withdraw liquidity from the market and push up real interest rates, which will exert significant downward pressure on gold prices.
4.22 Gold Market Analysis
Technical analysis: Gold showed a slight rebound intraday. Currently, on the daily chart, the short-term moving averages are mostly flat and close together, indicating continued consolidation within a broad range in the short term. Although Trump announced the extension of the ceasefire with Iran, the timing of the second round of negotiations has not yet been decided, adding uncertainty to the short-term trend. The situation remains highly uncertain, and gold may continue its weak trend in the near term, with further declines possible on rebounds. On the 4-hour chart, the current price is temporarily under pressure around 4770-80, and short-term prices may be compressed between 4780 and 4670. On the hourly chart, after a series of narrow oscillations, technical patterns are beginning to weaken; the short-term moving averages are shifting from divergence upward to flattening, suggesting some adjustment space in the short term, so watch for short-term correction and recovery. On the 30-minute chart, gold continues to weaken in the short term. Resistance above is around 4780, where short positions can be taken, and support is around 4650. If the situation does not significantly ease, gold may further decline. Overall, for today’s short-term trading, Jinchengfu suggests mainly shorting on rebounds and buying on dips, with a focus on resistance at 4770-4780 and support at 4650-4670. Manage positions and stop-loss strictly; do not fight the trend.
Gold Trading Strategy Reference
Short Position Strategy:
Strategy 1: Short on gold rebounds around 4765-4775 in batches (buy dips), with 2/10 position size, stop loss at 4790, target around 4700-4650, and if broken, look toward 4600.
Long Position Strategy:
Strategy 2: Buy on dips around 4600-4610 in batches (buy rises), with 2/10 position size, stop loss at 4580, target around 4650-4680, and if broken, look toward 4700.
These are for reference only and not investment advice!

#Gate广场四月发帖挑战 Strategic Thinking in the Altcoin Market—Set the Strategy First, Then Talk About Buying and Selling — Use Strategy to Define Trading Boundaries and Reject Blind Following
Today’s market is no longer what it used to be. Tactical diligence cannot hide strategic flaws. Focus on core opportunities and avoid wasting resources on non-strategic points. With the right approach, you can grasp the main contradictions.
The harsh truth about altcoin investing — 90% of people lose money due to “blind following without strategy,” only 10% profit from clear underlying logic. This hits the core pain point of altcoin investing: discussing buying and selling without a strategy, no matter how precise the candlestick analysis, is empty talk.
The altcoin market must first clarify “what to do, what not to do, and how to do it” to filter out invalid signals and focus on effective opportunities.
• Strategic positioning: choose one (must be clear, not vague):
• Major cycle bull (hold for 3-6 months): only select altcoins with “strong sector logic + institutional holdings + ongoing ecosystem development” (e.g., ARB, OP in the 2023 Layer2 sector), requiring clear user growth, revenue data, or technological breakthroughs. Avoid pure concept coins.
• Small wave (hold for 1-4 weeks): anchored in “Bitcoin stabilization + sector rotation,” only trade leading stocks in the main sector for a rebound, requiring short-term catalysts (such as project upgrades, listing on major exchanges, favorable policies), with pre-set take profit (20%-50%) and stop loss (10%-15%).
• Short-term arbitrage (hold for 1-3 days): focus on “news-driven + capital movement,” such as sudden positive news (e.g., a public chain announces major cooperation), large contract positions, requiring quick entry and exit, no holding the line, and leaving if the daily increase exceeds 15% without sustained volume.
• Practical taboos:
• Avoid “strategy drift”: doing short-term trading but turning into long-term holding due to losses; doing long-term but exiting early due to short-term volatility.
• Avoid “strategy-less trading”: buying just because of group calls or candlestick volume spikes, without understanding which sector the project belongs to or its core logic.
Implementation actions: before each trade, write in your memo “strategy type + holding period + entry reason + take profit and stop loss,” and pass on opportunities that do not meet the strategy.

#Gate广场创作者新春激励 Sudden Adjustment! BTC falls below 93,000, ETH loses the 3,230 support, and the bulls and bears in the crypto market are intensifying. Is it a bottom-fishing opportunity or just waiting on the sidelines?
January 19, 2026, marks a tense moment in the crypto market! Bitcoin (BTC) sharply drops below the $93,000 level, Ethereum (ETH) declines over 3% simultaneously, and the total liquidation volume across the network surges, spreading panic. Is this correction a brief pause in the upward trend or the start of a new round of decline?
Technical Warning Lights: Two Major Coins Show Correction Signals
From a technical perspective, both BTC and ETH are entering correction phases in the short term, with multiple key indicators issuing early warning signals that warrant close attention.
1. Bitcoin (BTC): Daily chart turns weak, caution for death cross risk
On the daily chart, BTC has clearly broken below the EMA20 (92,673.25 USD), and the Supertrend indicator has turned bearish. This indicates that the short-term bullish momentum has been exhausted, and a correction cycle has officially begun. The RSI is currently at 59.83, still in the neutral zone but showing a downward trend with insufficient upward momentum. More critically, the MACD shows signs of forming a death cross; once confirmed, it will likely accelerate the price decline. From a multi-timeframe perspective, the hourly chart shows a clear downward trend, with prices moving below short-term moving averages. Each rebound appears weak, and the battle around 92,000 USD is heating up. If this level is lost, the next target will be directly at 91,000 USD. The weekly chart also shows potential bearish divergence, with long upper wicks indicating strong resistance at the 100,000 USD level. Short-term, it’s unlikely to break through easily, and high-level consolidation is probable.
2. Ethereum (ETH): Lengthening green bars, support level at risk
ETH’s technical outlook is weaker than BTC’s. The daily chart shows it has also broken below the EMA20 (3,256.8 USD), and the Supertrend indicator has turned bearish. RSI is at 52.3, indicating a neutral-weak bias with insufficient upward momentum. The MACD green bars are lengthening, and the death cross signals are becoming more evident. Support near zero line is crucial; if broken, the correction could deepen further. The Bollinger Bands show ETH price has fallen below the midline, with the opening narrowing, suggesting increased market volatility. The lower band around 3,180 USD is a key short-term support; if broken, it could trigger a move toward 3,150 USD. The hourly chart also shows weak rebounds, with repeated tests of the 3,200 USD support. Failure to hold this level could worsen short-term sentiment.
Bearish Confluence: Macro + Regulatory Double Pressure, Market Sentiment Cooling
This correction in the crypto market is not isolated but results from macroeconomic factors and market sentiment resonance. Three major bearish factors deserve attention:
1. Changing macro environment: The change in the Federal Reserve chairperson candidate has significantly cooled expectations for rate cuts, leading to rising US Treasury yields and a strengthening dollar. Under this backdrop, global risk assets are under pressure, and Bitcoin and Ethereum, as high-risk assets, naturally decline in tandem. Additionally, ongoing US-European tariff tensions and increased stock market volatility further dampen market sentiment.
2. Deteriorating capital sentiment: The total liquidation volume across the network continues to rise over 24 hours, with short positions increasing. Market panic is intensifying. Historically, concentrated liquidations of high-leverage positions often trigger chain reactions, and breaking key support levels could lead to a cascade of sell-offs. Current signs of capital fleeing the market suggest short-term sentiment is unlikely to recover quickly.
3. Regulatory uncertainty: The progress of the US “Clear Bill” remains a focus, but its passage within the year is uncertain. Regulatory disagreements directly impact institutional capital inflows. Without additional capital support, the market will struggle to sustain previous upward momentum, likely remaining in a volatile correction phase in the short term.
Bottom-fishing or Waiting?
The most prudent approach to the current correction is to avoid blindly bottom-fishing or panicking sell-offs. Combining short-term volatility with medium- and long-term trends, here are two strategies for different risk preferences:
1. Short-term trading (intraday/4-hour): Light positions, strict risk control
For short-term traders, it’s recommended to adopt a “light trading” approach, avoiding high leverage:
- BTC short opportunities: When rebounding to the 94,000-95,000 USD range, if RSI remains below 60 and MACD confirms a death cross, consider small short positions with a stop-loss above 95,500 USD (near intraday highs), targeting 92,000-91,000 USD.
- BTC long opportunities: If the price stabilizes at 91,900 USD and RSI rises above 50, try small long positions with a stop-loss below 91,000 USD, targeting 93,500-94,000 USD.
- ETH short opportunities: When rebounding to 3,270-3,300 USD, if RSI stays below 55 and MACD shows a death cross, consider small shorts with a stop-loss above 3,340 USD, targeting 3,200-3,180 USD.
- ETH long opportunities: If the price stabilizes at 3,190 USD and RSI rises above 50, try small longs with a stop-loss at 3,150 USD, targeting 3,260-3,280 USD.
2. Medium-term positioning (daily/weekly): Patience and stabilization before action
For medium-term investors, the key strategy is “waiting for stabilization” to avoid premature entries:
- BTC: Focus on the 90,000 USD support level. If it holds, consider phased building with a stop-loss below 88,000 USD and targets at 98,000-100,000 USD. If broken, stay on the sidelines and wait for clearer stabilization signals.
- ETH: Watch the critical support zone at 3,150-3,180 USD. If it stabilizes, consider phased entries with a stop-loss at 3,100 USD and targets at 3,350-3,400 USD. If broken, consider exiting to avoid further correction risk.
Risk control red line: Regardless of short-term or medium-term, keep positions within 30% and avoid high leverage. Stay alert to US stock trends, USD index, and ETF fund flows. If macro sentiment worsens, adjust strategies immediately.
Market Outlook: Volatility or Rebound? The Key Signals
In the short term, BTC is likely to oscillate within the 91,000-95,000 USD range, while ETH trades between 3,190-3,300 USD.
The market direction depends mainly on two key signals:
First, whether macro sentiment improves. If expectations for rate cuts reignite and US stocks stabilize, capital may flow back into crypto, with BTC potentially challenging 98,000-100,000 USD and ETH testing 3,350-3,400 USD.
Second, whether key support levels hold. If BTC drops below 90,000 USD or ETH below 3,150 USD, it could trigger a deep correction, with BTC targets at 88,000-85,000 USD and ETH at 3,100-3,050 USD.
Final reminder: The current market is highly volatile with intense bulls and bears battles. All operations should prioritize risk management. Use technical indicators and news dynamics to adjust strategies accordingly. Avoid blindly chasing gains or panic selling.

#我的2026第一条帖 Trump hopes Hatzius stays in his current position, with the rate cut expectations in 2026 "shrinking." On January 17, today Trump mentioned White House National Economic Council Director Hatzius, saying, "We want him to continue in his current role, we will wait and see." This statement hints that Trump's preferred candidate for Federal Reserve Chair might be someone else. According to prediction market Polymarket data, the probability of Hatzius receiving the nomination has fallen to 15%, comparable to Federal Reserve Board member Waller, while Kevin Waugh's chances have risen to over 60%, making him the leading nominee. Compared to Trump's close ally, the "absolutely dovish" Hatzius, Kevin Waugh holds a more hawkish stance, but the market expects Waugh to still support rate cuts and to push forward with balance sheet reduction.(QT)
Since Trump hinted at nominating someone other than National Economic Council Director Hatzius to succeed Fed Chair Powell, traders have reduced their expectations for two rate cuts in the US by 2026. By the end of 2026, the probability of no rate cuts throughout the year is 11.8%, the probability of a total of 25 basis points in cuts is 30.3%, and the probability of a total of 50 basis points in cuts is 32.1%. Spot gold and silver prices sharply dropped in the short term, currently at $4,550 per ounce and $87.5 per ounce, respectively.

#我的2026第一条帖 Market sentiment can rise mainly driven by Federal Reserve news. Last night, several Fed officials spoke; Milan said they plan to cut interest rates by 150 basis points this year, and Kashkari also mentioned that rate cuts could continue later this year. This directly boosted cryptocurrencies, and prices started to go up. Looking at the technicals, Bitcoin has already broken through the previous consolidation range upper limit. On the daily chart, the moving averages still indicate a bullish trend, which looks quite strong. But note that the four-hour RSI is already overbought, and the hourly chart is in recovery. Although the bullish momentum is strong, there is definitely a need for a pullback and correction. Also, the price is approaching the resistance zone of 98,000 to 100,000, where institutions might take profit and sell off, so be cautious. When trading, focus on these key levels: in the short term, watch the 98,000 resistance level for Bitcoin; support has moved up to the 95,500-94,700 range.
Ethereum's resistance levels are at 3400 and the December high of 3450. The previous high resistance is significant and may cause pressure. Support below is at 3280-3250; if this zone holds, there could be a rebound later.
Overall, the crypto market is currently buoyed by expectations of Fed rate cuts, leaning towards a bullish outlook, but the technicals need repair. In the short term, a consolidation or sideways movement is most likely. Tonight, two key points to watch: one is the initial jobless claims data for the week, and the other is the Fed officials' speeches, both of which could cause market volatility. It is recommended to observe more and act less, keep an eye on these key levels, avoid blindly chasing rallies, and operate cautiously for better safety.

Looking ahead to 2026, the cryptocurrency asset market is poised to enter a more mature development phase. This transformation will be driven by three main forces: a favorable macroeconomic environment, clearer regulatory frameworks, and an accelerated institutional adoption process.
As the impact of the historic four-year halving cycle on the market continues to weaken, the importance of these factors is becoming increasingly evident. The US macroeconomic environment is expected to provide moderate support.
Expansionary fiscal measures—including tax cuts and strategic public spending under the "Great Recovery and Nation Building Act"—are anticipated to stimulate economic activity and partially offset fiscal constraints.
Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve is expected to maintain a cautious stance, balancing gradually easing but still elevated inflation pressures with emerging vulnerabilities in the labor market, creating conditions for moderate monetary easing in the second half of the year.
The combination of stimulative fiscal policy and a more accommodative monetary stance should strengthen overall market liquidity and create a favorable environment for risk assets such as cryptocurrencies. Therefore, in a macro environment filled with liquidity factors, virtual assets are expected to reinforce their role in diversifying investment portfolio risks, attracting more capital inflows. The regulatory framework for virtual assets is expected to mature significantly by 2026, enhancing market integrity and stability. As the "Cryptocurrency Market Structure Act," which continues to advance in defining jurisdiction, establishing clear rules for stablecoins, and strengthening anti-fraud and anti-money laundering measures, remains a key focus. Although the final legislation of this act may face procedural delays, ongoing debates and momentum around these critical issues will effectively boost institutional confidence. The gradual improvement of regulatory clarity is expected to systematically increase the compliance premium of regulated virtual assets, thereby strengthening their legitimacy and deepening their integration into the broader financial system.
Benefiting from regulatory progress and the mature development of infrastructure such as ETFs and compliance solutions, institutional adoption of cryptocurrencies will further deepen in 2026. As participation from entities like insurance companies, sovereign wealth funds, and corporate finance departments diversifies, it is expected that virtual assets will be gradually allocated through regulated products such as ETFs, publicly issued trusts, and on-chain compliant yield products. This structural shift will enhance institutional capital participation, gradually reduce the market’s historical over-reliance on retail sentiment, and promote more stable and diverse price dynamics.
The influence of Bitcoin’s scheduled halving event is gradually weakening, reshaping its market dynamics. In traditional four-year cycles, price peaks typically occur within 12 to 18 months after halving, followed by a prolonged bear market. However, as the total supply approaches the hard cap of 21 million coins, the circulating supply continues to expand, and this pattern is gradually diminishing. Therefore, Bitcoin’s pricing mechanism has shifted from being primarily supply-driven to increasingly reflecting macroeconomic conditions and institutional demand. Against this backdrop, 2026 still holds substantial upside potential for Bitcoin’s price trajectory.

#Gate广场创作者新春激励 Crypto Daily(01.13): Bitcoin's Mid-term Correction Continues, ETF Fund Outflows Expand, Institutions Increase Holdings, and Ethereum Remains Bullish Long-term
1. Bitcoin Market Trends and Cycle Analysis
1. Recently, Bitcoin has pulled back from its all-time high, and there are differing opinions on whether it has peaked. Most analyses believe this is a mid-term correction rather than a full-blown bear market, as the correction (36%) is smaller than the deep declines seen after previous cycle peaks (e.g., over 50% drop within 90 days after the 2021 and 2017 peaks).
2. Technical indicators show Bitcoin has regained the 50-day moving average, signaling a short-term bullish trend. However, attention should be paid to macro factors such as resistance levels and ETF fund flows; the current correction has lasted 46 days with a decline of less than 50%, indicating a mid-term correction rather than a long-term bear market.
3. Historical cycle patterns show peaks approximately 18 months after halving events. The current correction period (46 days) and retracement (36%) align with mid-cycle correction characteristics, not the start of a long-term bear market.
2. Bitcoin ETF Fund Flows
1. Recent net outflows occurred in US spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs: from January 6 to 8, Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows of about $1.13 billion, and Ethereum ETFs outflows of approximately $258 million; on January 12, 10 US Bitcoin ETFs had a net outflow of 3,734 BTC (about $33.89 million), and 9 Ethereum ETFs had a net outflow of 42,299 ETH (about $131.25 million).
2. The outflows reflect cautious market sentiment, offsetting early-year optimism and related to continued cautiousness toward the end of 2025, which may impact liquidity in the crypto market and short-term asset prices.
3. Institutional Activity (Bitcoin Accumulation)
Michael Saylor’s Strategy raised funds on January 11 through ATM offerings, increasing holdings by approximately 12,627 BTC at an average cost of $91,519 per BTC; as of January 11, the total holdings reached over 687,410 BTC, accounting for more than 3% of the total global Bitcoin supply, solidifying its position as the largest corporate Bitcoin holder worldwide.
4. Standard Chartered Bank’s Ethereum Forecast
1. Standard Chartered has raised its long-term price target for Ethereum, expecting it to reach $40,000 by the end of 2030, citing its structural advantages (such as DeFi dominance and Layer 1 scalability progress) that could enable it to outperform Bitcoin. The ETH-BTC ratio is expected to rebound to 2021 highs.
2. In the short term, due to Bitcoin’s weak performance, the forecast for 2026-2028 has been adjusted downward. However, long-term prospects remain optimistic regarding Ethereum’s dominance in stablecoins, real-world assets, and DeFi, as well as the US “CLARITY Act” promoting DeFi development.
5. Performance of Other Cryptocurrencies and ETF Movements
1. Ethereum followed Bitcoin’s moderate rise, with some altcoins like XRP recording double-digit gains; Solana-related ETFs experienced inflows, with January 12 seeing an inflow of 36,370 SOL (about $5.09 million), while Ethereum ETFs saw an outflow of 42,299 ETH (about $131.25 million).
2. Market interest in altcoins has increased, with some mainstream tokens outperforming Bitcoin, reflecting a market preference for diversified crypto assets.
6. Bitcoin Genesis Day and Historical Significance
17 years ago, Satoshi Nakamoto sent 10 BTC to Hal Finney, marking the first recorded peer-to-peer Bitcoin transaction. This event is considered a significant milestone in Bitcoin history. Today, those 10 BTC are worth nearly $1 million, symbolizing the success of the trustless digital cash transfer model.
7. Specific Crypto Project Updates
1. Bitcoin-related project Bitcoin Hyper has been affected by ETF fund outflows, with short-term growth prospects under pressure. Its performance is closely tied to Bitcoin ecosystem liquidity and market sentiment.
2. DeepSnitch AI offers token contract risk audits through its AuditSnitch feature, attracting over 28 million tokens staked, becoming a market hedge option.

#Gate广场创作者新春激励 Bitcoin's "time-driven capitulation" has approached 50 days, similar to market conditions before the 2025 peak rise.
The current narrow consolidation phase of Bitcoin resembles the range in April 2025, with Bitcoin trading between $80,000 and $95,000 since November 21. This duration is roughly comparable to the fluctuation from late February to early April 2025, when Bitcoin traded between $76,000 and $85,000, with consolidation lasting 52 days before ending with a new rally, ultimately reaching a peak of over $126,000 in October. Traders refer to this situation as "time-driven capitulation," where prolonged dull price movements cause impatient holders to exit the market. In recent years, as Bitcoin has matured as an asset and extreme declines in early cycles have not reoccurred, "time-driven capitulation" has become the norm.

#Gate广场创作者新春激励 “I’m coming, damn it” causes chaos—who’s next to die?
On January 8, 2026, Chinese retail investors were once again collectively harvested—just yesterday, bn launched its first Chinese meme coin—“bn Life.” It peaked immediately upon launch, then plummeted 80%, with tens of thousands of accounts wiped out overnight.
And today, even more surreal things happened: bn launched another Chinese token—“I’m Coming, Damn It.” Yes, you read that right. “I’m Coming, Damn It”—these five words are now a cryptocurrency worth millions of dollars in market cap.---
⚡️ Hellish level of mockery: This is the current state of the crypto world
1. “bn Life”: from $0.4 crashing to $0.08, a drop of over 80%, perfectly illustrating “launching at the peak, dead by the next day”
2. “I’m Coming, Damn It”: the name is all about traffic, consensus is a joke—the crypto world has become so crazy that “as long as you dare to name it, you dare to issue it.” This is not investment; it’s performance art.---
🔥 Who’s laughing? Who’s crying?
· Exchanges: collecting fees until they’re numb, launching = printing money
· Project teams: issuing tokens at zero cost, cashing out and leaving
· Big investors: pre-positioned, fleeing before the crash
· Retail investors: rushing in thinking they can get rich, only to wake up and find they’re just fuel
Harsh truth: what you bought isn’t a coin, it’s a “harvesting license.”
-The ultimate truth about MEME coins
When the market lacks real value, meme coins become a form of legal gambling.
The rules are simple:
· Early insiders: profit
· Latecomers: die
· Exchanges: always win, and you’re probably not among the early ones.
---⚠️ If you see this article: · “I’m Coming, Damn It” has already surged— that’s a trap
· “I’m Coming, Damn It” is crashing— that’s a harvest
· You want to “buy the dip”— that’s a death wish
Remember: when a meme coin becomes so popular that you’re aware of it, its only purpose is to take your money.---📈
Market truth: Don’t be blinded by memes; the overall market is still volatile, but the altcoin season is brewing. The real opportunities are never in these attention-grabbing memes. Stick to value coins and stay away from gambling tokens—this is the only rule to survive in 2026.