JPMorgan Highlights Bullish Divergence Between Bitcoin and Gold ETFs Amid Iran Conflict - Crypto Economy

TL;DR:

• JPMorgan detected that, since the start of the war with Iran, capital flows in ETFs are shifting from gold to Bitcoin.
• The SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) gold ETF lost 2.7% of its AUM, while BlackRock’s IBIT captured inflows equivalent to 1.5% of its own.
• Despite the rotation toward Bitcoin in spot ETFs, hedge funds increased short positions in IBIT and reduced those in GLD.

Since late February, the outbreak of the conflict between the United States and Iran accelerated a capital rotation that had been quietly taking shape: funds that had migrated from Bitcoin to gold during the final months of last year began to reverse that move. So noted JPMorgan in a report distributed to its investors, where analysts documented a marked divergence between flows into gold ETFs and Bitcoin ETFs since February 27, the date of the U.S. airstrike on Iranian territory.

Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, managing director and author of the report, specified that the largest gold ETF on the market, SPDR Gold Shares (GLD), recorded outflows equivalent to 2.7% of its assets under management during that period. By contrast, BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) absorbed inflows representing 1.5% of its AUM over the same time window. According to JPMorgan, this shift reverses the advantage that gold ETFs had accumulated over Bitcoin ETFs so far this year.


Gold Loses Ground in the Long Run

JPMorgan’s analysis was not limited to the post-conflict period. The bank also compared cumulative flows since 2024 and concluded that total inflows into IBIT nearly double those recorded by GLD since that year, revealing a structural trend that runs deeper than the immediate wartime context.

The report also observed that the implied volatility of options on GLD rises more sharply than that of IBIT, indicating that investors anticipate greater fluctuations in the price of gold. At the same time, market share in gold ETFs shows signs of sustained weakening.


JPMorgan: Institutional Caution Beneath the Surface

Not every element of the picture favors Bitcoin. JPMorgan warned that short interest in IBIT grew from the start of the conflict, while short interest in GLD declined, narrowing the gap between the two instruments. This suggests that hedge funds and other institutional investors continue trimming their direct exposure to Bitcoin and maintain a defensive preference for gold. The bank’s analysts attributed this dynamic to the metal’s longer track record and its more consolidated institutional base, factors that sustain its appeal as a hedge in scenarios of high macroeconomic uncertainty.