NVIDIA's Q2 revenue of $46.74 billion exceeded expectations, but its stock price fell. AI chip demand surged by 56%, yet there are uncertainties in the Chinese market. The relationship between Bitcoin and tech stocks reveals hidden complexities.

Global AI chip leader Nvidia announced its Q2 financial report, with revenue of $46.74 billion (up 56% year-on-year), and adjusted EPS of $1.05, both exceeding expectations, but the stock price fell 2.5% in after-hours trading. Data center business revenue of $41.1 billion became the core growth engine, with Blackwell chip series rising 17%. Due to restrictions on H20 chip exports to the Chinese market, the company recorded a $4.5 billion impairment loss. It is worth noting that the fluctuation of tech stock sentiment is forming a linkage effect with Bitcoin trends, and institutional capital’s allocation strategy between AI assets and encryption assets has undergone new changes.

[In-depth Analysis of Financial Reports: Why Is It Difficult to Support Stock Prices Beyond Expectations?]

NVIDIA’s financial report released at Beijing time on August 28 shows that Q2 revenue reached $46.74 billion (expected $46.06 billion), adjusted earnings per share were $1.05 (expected $1.01), and net profit was $25.78 billion, a year-on-year increase of 59%. Although the data exceeded expectations across the board, the stock price fell 2.5% to $177.16 in after-hours trading, reflecting the market’s rational adjustment to the “fulfillment of expectations.” This phenomenon of “good news already priced in” is common among tech stocks, especially for star stocks that have risen over 200% this year.

[Data Center Business: The Core Engine of the AI Craze]

► The demand from large-scale cloud service providers has exploded

The revenue of the data center department reached 41.1 billion USD, a year-on-year rise of 56% and a quarter-on-quarter rise of 17%, contributing 88% of the company’s total revenue. The Blackwell architecture chips have become the core of this rise, as cloud giants like Meta, Google, and Microsoft continue to drive order growth in the arms race for AI computing power.

► Geopolitics has become the biggest variable

Affected by U.S. export controls, the H20 chip designed specifically for the Chinese market failed to achieve sales, resulting in a $4.5 billion impairment loss for the company. Although $180 million worth of H20 inventory has been released to non-Chinese customers, it remains to be seen whether the meeting between former President Trump and Nvidia can change the policy direction.

[Guidance Analysis: $54 billion in Q3 revenue, excluding potential contributions from the Chinese market]

The company has set its Q3 revenue guidance at $54 billion (slightly above the market expectation of $53.1 billion), but explicitly excludes potential contributions from the Chinese market. This relatively conservative forecast reflects management’s cautious attitude towards geopolitical risks and also suggests that the growth rate of super-large capital expenditures may have peaked.

[In-depth Analysis of the Correlation between Bitcoin and Tech Stocks]

◎ Risk sentiment transmission mechanism

After the Nvidia earnings report was released, not only did Nasdaq futures drop by 0.4%, but Bitcoin also fell from around $113,200 to about $112,500. This correlation is due to:

• Similar investor groups: Technology stocks and the encryption market are both affected by macro liquidity.
• AI narrative crossover: Bitcoin mining machines largely adopt NVIDIA GPUs, accelerating the fusion of AI and blockchain technology.
• Capital rotation effect: Institutions adjust allocations between technology stocks and encryption assets.

◎ Collaborative Development of the Computing Power Industry

NVIDIA GPUs are not only the core hardware for AI training but also a key component for upgrading Bitcoin mining machines. The energy efficiency improvement of the Blackwell chip will directly reduce the operational costs of large-scale mining, creating a positive feedback loop in the industry chain. Currently, the Bitcoin hash rate index shows a 0.72 annual correlation with NVIDIA’s stock price.

[Market Outlook: Three Key Monitoring Indicators]

1. Hyperscaler capital expenditure guidance: Follow the statements regarding AI infrastructure investment in the September cloud vendor earnings call.

2. US-China chip trade policy: The results of the November elections may change the export control landscape.

3. Bitcoin hash rate changes: The deployment progress of Nvidia’s new chips will affect the network’s hash rate rise.

[Investment Strategy Recommendations]

In the short term, technology stocks and the encryption market will remain highly correlated. It is recommended that investors:

• Adopt a cross-market hedging strategy, allocating an appropriate amount of Bitcoin holdings when investing in technology stocks.
• Follow the policy changes of Nvidia’s H20 chip, which may be an important catalyst for stock prices.
• Monitor the hardware upgrade cycle of Bitcoin mining companies and strategically position power concept assets.

Conclusion: Dual-Track Investment Opportunities in the Technological Revolution

NVIDIA’s financial report once again verifies the high prosperity of the AI industry, but the market reaction indicates that investors need more refined risk pricing. Meanwhile, Bitcoin, as the “NVIDIA” of the digital asset field, is similarly enjoying the value re-evaluation brought by the computing power revolution. Smart investors should pay attention to the synergistic effects of these two tracks, maximizing cross-market returns in the wave of technological change.