Surprise rebound! The US ADP small non-farm employment report far exceeded expectations, and Bitcoin surged past $103,000.

U.S. Small Non-Farm ADP Employment Report Released This Evening (Nov 5)

The data shows that the United States added 42,000 jobs in October, surpassing the market forecast of 25,000 and ending two consecutive months of negative growth. (Background context: Don’t just focus on rate cuts! What changes will ending quantitative tightening bring to liquidity?)(Additional background: Goldman Sachs predicts the U.S. government shutdown will end within two weeks, making a December rate cut by the Fed more justified?)

The ADP private sector employment report, released by the U.S. employment services company ADP on the evening of November 5, shines a bright light through recent economic fog. The data indicates that in October, the U.S. added 42,000 jobs, exceeding market expectations of 25,000, and marks the largest monthly increase since July. In the context of the government shutdown and the absence of official statistical data, its significance is self-evident.

Private Sector Surprises with Rebound

Compared to the revised decrease of 29,000 jobs in September, this figure represents a V-shaped rebound. Looking further, the median annual salary of retained employees increased by 4.5%, while that of those who changed jobs rose by 6.7%, indicating wages are still rising but not overheating. Additionally, the “Trade, Transportation, and Utilities” sector contributed 47,000 jobs, and “Education and Healthcare” added 26,000 jobs, becoming the main drivers of employment growth. Conversely, the “Information” sector shrank by 17,000 jobs, “Professional and Business Services” decreased by 15,000, and “Leisure and Hospitality” declined by 6,000, revealing industry-specific disparities.

In the short term, stronger-than-expected employment data is expected to boost consumer and investor confidence. However, investors should keep an eye on two key variables: first, whether actual employment trends once official data resumes will align with ADP’s figures; second, how the Federal Reserve will proceed at the December FOMC meeting.

Bitcoin Breaks Above $103,000

Since the official non-farm employment report was paused due to the government shutdown, ADP data has become the only available economic indicator for the market. It’s worth noting that this unexpectedly strong employment report alleviated concerns about economic slowdown.

Perhaps influenced by this, Bitcoin briefly rallied after the ADP report was released, breaking through $103,000 and currently trading at approximately $103,170.

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• Fed Chair Powell: AI is not a bubble; tech companies have real cash flow, and a strong economy doesn’t necessarily mean an immediate rate cut
• Fed announces the end of quantitative tightening and a further rate cut—why did Bitcoin fall below $110,000? What did Powell say?

This article was originally published on BlockTempo, a leading blockchain news media outlet.