According to Markus Thielen, CEO of 10x Research and former portfolio manager, the strong buying wave from institutions since the beginning of 2024 has contributed to driving up the price of Bitcoin, but it could also amplify the correction momentum if the market continues to tire.
In an interview with Bloomberg, Thielen stated that the crypto market, especially Bitcoin, is showing all the clear signs of fatigue, following a difficult October marked by the largest liquidation event in the industry's history. He emphasized that these losses have exacerbated the already existing macro risks, which are increasingly being reflected by Bitcoin.
With the influx of capital from institutions, especially from Bitcoin spot ETF funds, being the main driving force behind the price surge in 2024, Thielen warns that this same group of investors could also increase downward pressure if market activity continues to slow.
“At some point, risk management may intervene and say: 'You need to reduce or eliminate your position,'” Thielen commented. “There is a risk that Bitcoin will continue to go down as people need to rebalance their portfolios.”
This statement comes in the context of spot Bitcoin ETF funds in the US experiencing a significant increase in capital outflows. According to data from CoinShares, the funds recorded a total of 939 million USD withdrawn last week, reflecting a cooling in demand from institutional investors.
Bitcoin is weaker in 2025
Surprisingly, Bitcoin has been underperforming compared to most other major assets since the beginning of the year — an unusual development in a year following the most recent halving cycle. The world's largest cryptocurrency has lagged behind gold, tech stocks, and even some Asian stock indices since January, despite having previously set several record highs, including a peak of over $126,000 at the beginning of October.
However, 10x Research is not entirely pessimistic about Bitcoin; the company believes that shorting ETH could be a more effective hedging strategy than directly betting on Bitcoin, which remains the preferred asset for institutional investors looking to gain exposure to the crypto market.
Bitcoin has outperformed gold in annual returns for most of history, but 2025 looks set to be different. Bitcoin has increased by over 8% year-to-date, while spot gold has risen by 57% | Source: CurvoMuch of the recent weakness in Bitcoin is thought to come from “whales” — large holders — as they take profits above $100,000. Alex Saunders from Citigroup shared with Bloomberg that the number of wallets holding more than 1,000 BTC has been gradually decreasing in recent weeks.
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