Optimism (OP) keeps hitting new lows: When will the bears give way to the bulls?

OP continues to reflect the general weakening trend of the cryptocurrency market as it appears among the top 3 biggest losers in the top 100 coins by market capitalization. At the time of writing, the price of OP has dropped 16%, pushing the total loss since November 20 to 27%, creating significant pressure for investors.

Will bearish pressure on OP continue to dominate?

The chart clearly shows that the bears are in control as Optimism (OP) drops to a new low, breaking through the $0.30 level. This downward momentum has been driven by capital flowing into Bitcoin (BTC), as BTC plunged below $85,000, prompting traders to rush in for discounted buys.

Additionally, the boom in (privacy coins) amid a weak market has also drained capital from OP, causing its price to continuously decline over the past week. The bears are clearly dominant, as indicated by the Bull Bear Power index (BBP) with increasingly larger histogram bars, while the widening Bollinger Bands signal heightened volatility.

The recent drop followed a period of sideways movement characterized by consecutive lower highs and lows. However, on the 4-hour timeframe, a base zone with a bullish Doji candle has appeared, suggesting a potential bullish counterattack—a phenomenon often seen after prices hit new lows.

Nguurce: TradingView If altcoins continue to weaken alongside BTC, OP could face additional pressure unless the bulls manage to regain control in time. Although the bears still hold the upper hand, the bullish reactions as OP broke below $0.30 indicate that there is still hope in the market. The downward trend is not only driven by technical factors and capital rotation but also clearly reflected in on-chain activity moving in the same direction.

Decrease in trading, liquidity, and TVL

Previously, monthly transaction numbers reached 57.4 million, but the latest forecast shows that the end-of-month figure will be significantly lower. At the current pace, the total number of transactions is expected to stop at 55.6 million, while only 39.3 million have been completed so far.

During the same period, Total Value Locked (TVL) dropped 4% in just 24 hours, down to $501.4 million. On-chain stablecoin market capitalization also fell by 2.76% over the past week, reflecting capital outflows. These signals combine to create consistent downward pressure on OP’s price day by day.

Nguurce: Dune

Conclusion

Optimism (OP) has experienced a sharp decline over the past week. While the bulls are showing signs of returning, their strength remains limited. For OP to truly reverse, the price needs to break above $0.31 and aim for the $0.40 level.

The key is to watch for a series of higher highs and higher lows—a clear sign of a change in market structure. If this does not occur, the bears will maintain their advantage, and further declines are likely unavoidable.

SN_Nour