A statement "may fall by 99%": Arthur Hayes and Monad start a public opinion showdown across the internet.

Original Title: “A Showcase of the Argument between Monad Founder and Arthur Hayes”

Original author: jk

Source:

Reprinted: Mars Finance

On November 29, BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes publicly expressed his bearish outlook on Monad, which had just launched its mainnet 6 days prior, during an interview with Altcoin Daily, stating that it “could drop by 99%” and characterizing it as “another high market cap, low circulation VC coin.” This statement quickly gained traction, and Monad co-founder Keone Hon responded directly on X, leading to an intense public confrontation between the two.

The following is the complete record of the conversation between both parties.

Full text of the dialogue

· Keone Hon, Founder of Monad

Dear @CryptoHayes, I respect everything you have built for this industry. Perpetual contracts are an amazing innovation, and I believe they will continue to grow rapidly. You have had a tremendous impact on our industry.

Over the past few days, I've seen you comment on Monad multiple times. While I'm sure some comments may have been taken out of context, I thought you might be interested in understanding what makes Monad different and why it is not just another L1.

I believe that when you were innovating at BitMEX, you also had to deal with a lot of FUD, and you just responded to those comments head-on and moved on. I plan to do the same.

Here are some key points about why Monad is different from others:

· It is really fast. When you withdraw from Coinbase, the funds arrive within 1-2 seconds. This experience is simply magical.

· It is built on a brand new technology stack, making this speed possible in a highly decentralized network. Currently, there are 170 globally distributed validator nodes, and there will be more in the future.

· This is important because when everyone is saying that blockchain must be centralized and must be a data center chain (or a single sorter) to achieve high performance, Monad has proven the possibility of the opposite. Enterprises, asset issuers, and global developers want decentralization and trusted neutrality – they do not want to be subject to the whims of a single sorter.

· The codebase of Monad is fully open-source and audited, built from scratch entirely in C++ and Rust, incorporating many high-frequency trading style optimizations.

· Monad has introduced MonadBFT, a cutting-edge consensus mechanism that addresses the tail end fork problem of pipelined consensus. This alone is a significant advancement, as BFT consensus itself requires multiple rounds of communication; pipelined (interleaved) block production is the only way to achieve fast block times; previously, pipelining was vulnerable to attacks from a single block reorganization (tail end fork), leading to MEV attacks. But that is no longer the case!

· Monad introduces asynchronous execution, allowing consensus and execution to take place in independent lanes, further improving efficiency. Ethereum is attempting to adopt this technology.

· Monad also has a series of other technological innovations, such as a complete JIT compiler that compiles EVM bytecode into native code, a new database (MonadDb), a new block propagation mechanism (RaptorCast), and parallel execution.

The ecosystem is just starting out, but there is already a batch of new applications built by a group of young and energetic builders.

· The Monad Foundation and the Category Labs team are committed to continuing to drive the development in this field. Research contributions in areas such as asynchronous execution, Gas pricing, and privacy will continue to push the industry forward. This is the 6th day since the mainnet launch, and our outstanding team will continue to do things differently.

· Finally, MON is the first token on the Coinbase token sale platform, aimed at allowing as many people as possible to acquire the tokens before the public launch. The token sale adopts a “bottom filling” approach, so whales cannot snatch up the entire share like in many other issuances.

If you want some MON to try out this network, let me know, I would be happy to send you some. Thanks again for your contribution to this field, see you on the chain.

· Arthur Hayes, founder of BitMEX, KOL

I know nothing about your technology. I believe it is good, and everyone who mentions you and your team says you are incredibly smart. But your tokenomics almost guarantees that MON will only keep falling.

Tell your community how this chain can absorb 90% of the tokens without crashing. Inform your community about how much real usage is needed to generate organic demand to support the selling pressure after early investors and team members unlock their tokens. They can sell without any issues; your early supporters and team members took risks and deserve good returns. Let the community know how, with approximately 1% inflation per month just from staking rewards, you maintain this price level. Screw educating me. I don't care what your technology does; I'm a trader. Write me a long piece about cash flow to make me look like an idiot.

Before that, MON was a hot potato. It was fun to play with in the short term, but due to the supply and demand relationship, the overall trend would only go down.

· Keone Hon

I'm not sure where you got your information, but it's not correct.

The inflation rate is 2% per year, far lower than almost all other L1s.

Locked tokens cannot be staked, which is also unprecedented.

Coinbase token sales adopt a “retail priority fill” approach, giving priority to retail participants.

Everything is built from scratch to substantially expand the capability boundaries of truly decentralized blockchain.

You only live once, it's worth a try.

I think if you take a close look at what my team and I are doing, you will find that a lot of things are different. We are not just copying the same script.

If you have any specific criticisms regarding Monad, please let me know, I am all ears.

· Arthur Hayes

Unlock all tokens now, and you will be different from all the so-called $ETH killers before. If you have the guts, just do it.

· Keone Hon

You didn't answer my question—what specific criticisms do you have of Monad? I'm quite sure the companies in your VC portfolio also have locked tokens.

Additionally, you also mentioned that you’ve heard our team is very talented and our technology is great. What if it can succeed? The current state of blockchain cannot be the final form of blockchain. If we were all like you, then everyone should pack up and go home to wash up and sleep early.

· Arthur Hayes

It's all about the traffic, bro. Are you brave enough to unlock all the tokens now and let the market find the true price for your coins?

(As of the time of writing, the two sides have not further engaged in mutual attacks.)

Community reaction: Hayes, you made it!

This confrontation has sparked extensive discussions in the crypto community, with many questioning the logic behind Hayes' criticisms.

Someone dug up Hayes's previous comments and directly asked: So why did you think it could rise to 10 dollars back then?

@Doudounadz pointed out that Hayes has never asked these questions about the projects he invested in, “It's strange that you've never asked these questions to any of the teams you invested in. I don't quite understand this hate, to be honest (although I can probably guess why).”

@gmoneyNFT directly challenged: Then you demonstrate it, let all the companies in your investment portfolio unlock their tokens as well.

Some people also view this debate from a more macro perspective. @0xMardiansyah believes that this reflects the fundamental divide between traders and developers: traders do not care about technology and only focus on price; meanwhile, developers work hard to build from scratch, considering all aspects including token economics, only to be judged by those who only look at candlestick charts.

@NFT5lut said: Hayes is the Barry Silbert of Monad; apart from creating panic to make people sell and then buying in at low prices, he has never been right about anything.

MON price trend

The Monad mainnet officially launched on November 24, and the MON token began trading simultaneously.

It is worth noting that MON had a lackluster performance on its first day of launch, with the opening price briefly falling below the public sale price, which is relatively mild for a highly anticipated L1 token. In stark contrast to recent projects like Plasma that sold out in seconds, the public sale of MON took longer to clear but then slowly rose. However, nearly a week after the mainnet launch, the price of MON has dropped from a high of over $0.04 and is currently fluctuating around $0.03.

An asymmetric war of public opinion

The interesting thing about this confrontation is that both sides are not even on the same dimension in their dialogue.

In the public opinion arena, critics have more advantages than builders. Hayes made it clear from the beginning: “I know nothing about your technology,” and, “I don't care what your technology does, I'm a trader.” Hayes's argument is not new; the notion that “high FDV and low circulation VC coins will eventually drop” has been one of the most mainstream narratives in the crypto market over the past two years. A large number of retail investors have lost money in projects with similar structures, and this collective memory makes any criticism pointing to “VC harvesting” resonate easily, especially during a bear market.

From the perspective of communication effectiveness, Hayes has indeed hit this emotional point.

For Keone, this is a very difficult situation to win. Technical advantages need time to be validated, ecological prosperity requires developers to vote with their feet, while Hayes' doubts are immediate, intuitive, and easy to understand.

This is a debate that will definitely have no conclusion. What truly determines the fate of Monad is whether there are developers who will actually build something valuable with it in the coming years.

From this perspective, what Keone said is not wrong: “You only live once, it's worth a try.”