BNB breaks the 870 USD mark as the Fed's hawkish stance fuels risk aversion sentiment

BNB (BNB), formerly Binance Coin, continues to extend its correction and is trading below the $870 mark on Thursday evening, amid weakening risk appetite in the cryptocurrency market following the hawkish rate cut decision by the US Federal Reserve (Fed). On-chain signals and derivative data remain somewhat negative, reflecting investor pessimism and indicating that BNB may face further downward pressure in the coming sessions.

Cautious Fed rate cuts exert pressure on risk assets

The cryptocurrency market declined across the board after the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting early Thursday. As expected, the Fed continued to cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.50%–3.75% after two days of policy meetings, but also signaled a possible pause in easing cycle in January.

The cautious stance was reinforced as policymakers only forecast one 0.25 percentage point rate cut in 2026 – unchanged from September’s forecast – contrasting with market expectations of two cuts. This quickly cooled investors’ risk appetite.

The hawkish tone of the rate cut decision and the Fed’s cautious outlook triggered a mild risk-avoidance wave in the market. This sentiment was further amplified by the less positive earnings report from Oracle after the US market closed. All these factors combined have put pressure on risk assets, leading to declines in major cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), Ripple (XRP), Solana (SOL), and BNB during Thursday’s trading session.

On-chain and derivative data indicate bearish signals

Data from CryptoQuant, shown in the chart below, indicates increasing selling pressure on BNB. The Taker CVD (Cumulative Volume Delta) indicator for BNB has turned negative since early October and has been trending downward since then. This metric reflects the cumulative difference between buy and sell volumes over three months. When the 90-day CVD remains positive and increases, the market is considered to be in a “Taker Buy Dominant” phase. Conversely, negative and decreasing values indicate a “Taker Sell Dominant” state, meaning selling pressure is prevailing.

Spot Taker CVD chart of BNB | Source: CryptoQuantIn addition, CryptoQuant’s Futures Average Order Size indicator – which tracks the average size of BNB futures orders matched – also shows a shrinking trend. This decline suggests trading activity is shifting toward retail investors, often seen as a less positive sign for price development.

Chart of BNB Futures Average Order Size | Source: CryptoQuantData from Coinglass further reinforces this cautious outlook, as the BNB long/short ratio on Thursday only reached 0.82. A ratio below 1 indicates a pessimistic market sentiment, with most traders betting on further BNB price declines.

BNB long/short ratio | Source: Coinglass## BNB Price Forecast: Bears target below $850

BNB’s price was rejected at the downtrend line extending from mid-October on Tuesday and continued to weaken slightly the next day. As of Thursday morning, BNB remains in a negative trend around $866.90.

If the correction continues to deepen, BNB could retreat further to the next important support zone on the daily timeframe at $844.

Daily BNB/USDT chart | Source: TradingViewThe daily RSI indicator is currently at 42, below the neutral threshold of 50, and still trending downward, reflecting increasing bearish momentum.

Conversely, if a rebound occurs, BNB may attempt to test the 50-day EMA at around $933.53.