Bitcoin breaks through $91,000, but futures basis is only 4% with low leverage levels, indicating that the spot buying demand after the end-of-2025 washout is leading.
(Background: Trump orders bombing of Caracas! Bitcoin drops below 90,000, ETH holds at 3100)
(Additional context: Global ETF growth in 2025 “attracts $1.5 trillion,” with BlackRock Bitcoin IBIT being the only one among the top 15 that is in loss)

Table of Contents

• Low basis highlights spot buying
• Capital flows back after ETF year-end settlement
• Calm in the options market

As of January 4, 2026, Bitcoin (BTC) price steadily rose past $91,000 in Asian morning trading, hitting a nearly three-week high. Unlike typical sentiment-driven rallies, on-chain and derivatives data show this is a “silent” rally led by spot funds after deep deleveraging at the end of 2025.

Low basis highlights spot buying

After a dip caused by U.S. military attacks on Venezuela on the 3rd, Bitcoin recovered its losses within just 20 hours. However, the futures market did not heat up simultaneously. CryptoQuant data shows that the annualized futures basis premium on major exchanges is only about 4%, far below the over 15% levels seen at the October 2025 peak. During the same period, open interest shrank by nearly $40 billion, indicating a clear reduction in leverage positions.

In the context of leverage decreasing to neutral or slightly low levels, Bitcoin continues to set short-term highs, suggesting that price momentum mainly comes from “real money” spot holdings rather than derivative speculation, making the market structure more stable.

ETF capital flows back after year-end settlement

In the last two weeks of December last year, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced a net outflow of $1.29 billion, raising concerns about institutional retreat. However, flow tracking shows that this sell-off was more of a technical adjustment for “tax loss harvesting” and year-end balance sheet reconciliation rather than outright bearish sentiment.

After the New Year, the situation quickly reversed, with a single-day net inflow of $470 million on January 2, with BlackRock accounting for the largest share. Funds returned to pre-Christmas levels within just two days, indicating that institutional long-term allocation strategies have not changed significantly.

Calm in the options market

The derivatives market also shows no signs of panic. Currently, the 30-day put-to-call ratio for Bitcoin is only 0.48, below the 0.5 threshold, indicating that call option demand significantly exceeds put options. Professional traders are not buying additional insurance, reflecting limited concern about price retracements.

Meanwhile, implied volatility for options remains around 45%, far below the triple-digit extreme levels reached in October 2025. Trading volume is concentrated at strike prices between $88,000 and $91,000, showing that major funds are quietly accumulating positions within this range.

Overall, the current price of $91,000 is not accompanied by high leverage nor extreme sentiment. Low futures basis, ETF capital inflows, and low demand for options insurance together form a stable post-bubble market. If no structural negative news emerges, the market may quietly build a bullish structure.

In the new week, the above is not investment advice.