War shadows loom over the two major oil-producing countries! How soaring oil prices ignite the gold bank sentiment

At the beginning of 2026, the United States launched an attack on military bases in Venezuela, and Trump announced the arrest of President Maduro. Simultaneously, large-scale riots broke out in multiple cities in Iran. Venezuela holds the world’s largest proven oil reserves, and Iran is a core member of OPEC. Prolonged turmoil in both countries would severely disrupt global oil supply. History shows that war-driven oil crises transmit through safe-haven and inflation channels to gold and silver. During the 1973 oil embargo, gold doubled in price, and silver surged over 30 times.

The Domino Effect in the Oil Supply Chain

Venezuela and Iran simultaneously face war crises, and their impact on the global energy landscape far exceeds surface data. Venezuela possesses over 300 billion barrels of proven oil reserves, making it the largest in the world. Although recent years have seen significant declines in production due to sanctions and mismanagement, its potential capacity remains a key variable for global energy security. If U.S. military intervention triggers prolonged turmoil, Venezuela’s already fragile oil exports could cease entirely.

Iran’s situation is even more complex. As the third-largest oil producer in OPEC, Iran produces about 3 million barrels per day, with roughly 2 million barrels exported. More critically, Iran controls the Strait of Hormuz, through which approximately 20% of global oil transportation passes. If nationwide protests in Tehran escalate into regime change, it could trigger a chain reaction across the Middle East. Social unrest such as worker strikes, municipal blockades, and attacks on police stations threaten the normal operation of oil facilities.

Historical experience indicates that war impacts on the oil market are driven not only by actual supply disruptions but also by intense psychological expectations. During Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait in 1990, despite only about 4% reduction in global oil supply, oil prices skyrocketed from $17 to $42 per barrel within two months, a 147% increase. This “panic premium” often far exceeds the actual supply-demand gap because markets price in the worst-case scenarios in advance.

Differentiated Response Mechanisms of Gold and Silver

How does war transmit to the precious metals market? This pathway can be divided into two main channels: safe-haven-driven and inflation-driven. Due to their different properties, gold and silver play distinct roles in these channels.

Gold: The Pricing Logic of a Pure Safe-Haven Asset

Three Levels of Safe-Haven Demand

First Level: When geopolitical risks surge, capital seeks safe havens, with gold, USD, and U.S. Treasuries being the top choices.

Second Level: When conflicts involve the U.S. or shake the dollar system, gold’s non-sovereign currency attribute becomes prominent.

Third Level: War-induced oil crises elevate inflation expectations, activating gold’s hedging function.

Historical Data Support

1973 First Oil Crisis: Gold doubled from $100/oz.

1979 Second Oil Crisis: Gold surged to a historic $850/oz.

1990 Third Oil Crisis: Gold experienced a short-term increase of over 15%.

Silver: The Resilient Champion of Dual Attributes

Silver’s uniqueness lies in its “slash youth” identity—both a precious metal and an industrial metal. During war-driven oil crises, silver often exhibits higher volatility and upward elasticity than gold.

Four-Step Transmission Loop

Oil Price Surge: Production costs soar (oil is the blood of modern industry).

Cost-Push Inflation Spreading: PPI and CPI rise across the board.

Inflation Erodes Currency Purchasing Power: Physical assets become more sought after.

Silver Gains Dual Safe-Haven and Commodity Support: Price elasticity surpasses gold.

The Genes of Silver’s Explosive Rise

1973-1980: From below $2/oz to $50, a rise of over 2,400%.

Higher Beta: During periods of expanding gold-silver ratios, silver tends to chase gains 1.5 to 2 times faster than gold.

Industrial Demand Support: Growing needs in new energy, electronics, and other fields.

Essential Game: Control of Resources and Currency Fluctuations

Venezuela and Iran frequently become focal points of conflict due to the strategic value of oil as the “blood of industry.” Major consuming countries, aiming to ensure energy security and control over prices, inevitably involve deep political and military interventions. Such involvement itself becomes a primary source of geopolitical risk.

Every major geopolitical conflict is superficially a disruption to oil capacity but fundamentally a stress test of the dollar-centered petrodollar system. When markets doubt whether the current system can reliably ensure resource flow, gold—an ultimate, borderless, non-sovereign monetary equivalent—becomes an unprecedentedly solid foundation of value.

In recent five years, war risks have sharply increased. From ongoing conflicts between the U.S. and Middle Eastern countries, to the Russia-Ukraine war, and now the simultaneous turmoil in Venezuela and Iran, the world is entering an era of high-frequency geopolitical conflicts. In this context, the “war and currency triangle” involving oil, gold, and silver will continue to play a significant role.

Investment Strategies and Risk Management

In the short-term, driven by market sentiment, any escalation news will immediately trigger safe-haven buying in oil, gold, and silver, with increased volatility becoming the norm. In the medium term, attention should be paid to whether rising oil prices substantively boost long-term inflation expectations, especially in the U.S., which will determine whether gold and silver can initiate large-scale rallies.

Gold remains the safe harbor for extreme risks and monetary credit issues, suitable for conservative investors. Silver may be a more aggressive track to seize the chain reaction from geopolitical crises to resource inflation, historically showing greater upward elasticity relative to gold. Its lower price and higher volatility may attract more trend-following capital.

True optimism is not about ignoring risks but about deeply understanding the underlying patterns of volatility. When the smoke rises from oil-producing regions, it’s not just political news but a signal for global capital and resource revaluation.