MarketWhisper

Spring Festival is approaching, and attention is on BTC red envelope market. Over the past 10 years, 9 of those years have seen gains with an average of 11%, with the strongest increase of 24.7% in 2018, driven by year-end bonuses and red envelopes. However, ARK investment managers say the structure has changed, with ETFs absorbing 12% of supply and volatility dropping to 36%. Institutional re-accumulation has altered the explosive growth pattern, with ARK targeting a $1.5 million price in a bull market scenario by 2030.

Chinese New Year historically triggers predictable Bitcoin patterns: 20% pre-holiday selloffs followed by 33% recoveries. According to 10x Research, buying BTC three days before and selling 10 days after generated 11% average ROI historically. China's 59.1 million crypto holders liquidate positions to fund celebrations, creating liquidity void that algos exploit.

Bitcoin's New Year prices surged from $314 in 2015 to $94,419 in 2025—30,000%+ gains despite 70%+ drawdowns. However, the 2026 New Year opening at $87,508.40 marks 7.3% decline from 2025, validating analyst warnings of correction toward $69,700-$71,400 support zone.

ChatGPT crypto analysis 2026 reveals scenario-based forecasts as single-number predictions fail amid volatile ETF flows. Bitcoin ranges from $55K-$85K bear to $180K-$250K bull, while Ethereum spans $2K-$3.2K to $9K-$14K. This analysis combines institutional outlooks from Standard Chartered, Bloomberg Intelligence, and Fundstrat with market structure observations.

2026 Year of the Horse (Bing Wu Year) meme coins mainly feature Chinese themes, with "I’m on my horse" gaining the most attention, once soaring over 700%, with a market capitalization surpassing $52 million. The token name combines a Chinese swear word pun, quickly becoming popular in Chinese-speaking communities. Other popular ones include "Horse to Success" (a lucky phrase emphasizing the New Year atmosphere), "Dark Horse" (a narrative of reverse rise), "Crying Horse" (self-deprecating trapped emotions), "Teng Little Horse" (cute pet style), and others.

Several Taiwanese financial institutions, including private banks and pure online banks, have completed negotiations with partnered VASPs over the past year to submit applications to the Financial Supervisory Commission (FSC) for a trial virtual asset custody business. However, they have been repeatedly rejected. The FSC's reason is that "the number of warning accounts is too high," and they require banks to significantly reduce the number of warning accounts before their applications can have a chance of success.

World Liberty Financial (WLFI), supported by Trump, plans to launch the World Swap foreign exchange trading platform, co-founder Zak Folkman announced at the Hong Kong Consensus Conference. The platform will use WLFI's USD1 stablecoin as the settlement currency, aiming to transfer foreign exchange trading onto the blockchain. The global forex market has a daily trading volume of over $7 trillion, with most transactions currently conducted off-chain.

Cryptocurrency finance company ETHZilla launches Eurus Aero Token I, supported by two leased commercial jet engines to a leading American airline. Each token is priced at $100, with a minimum purchase of 10 tokens, aiming to hold until 2028. ETHZilla purchased these two engines in January for $12.2 million, funded by the sale of part of its ETH reserves.

The Northern District of Ohio Prosecutor's Office warned on Thursday to be cautious of love scams during Valentine's Day, as crypto fraud and organized crime networks target the peak sales season. Authorities urge the public to stay vigilant, as scammers exploit online relationships to steal money, often building trust over weeks or months before luring victims into crypto payments and fake investment schemes. San Jose widow Margaret Loke lost nearly $1 million in the scam.

Hyperliquid Strategies confirms quarterly losses of $318 million, of which $262 million is attributed to unrealized losses on the HYPE token. The sharp decline in token valuation directly impacts the balance sheet, and market volatility has intensified losses. Although there have been no large-scale liquidations, the valuation impact reveals how token concentration can amplify downside risk.

According to Forbes, Barron Trump has earned over $80 million from cryptocurrency investments, with an estimated net worth of around $150 million, and he is not even 20 years old. His wealth mainly comes from token sales and holdings in World Liberty Financial (WLFI). Forbes estimates these figures based on financial disclosures and market data, but the specific numbers are unconfirmed due to the difficulty in verifying cryptocurrency holdings.

The amount of cryptocurrency inflow suspected to be linked to human trafficking networks is projected to increase by 85% in 2025, but crypto analytics firm Chainalysis states that blockchain transparency could help disrupt these networks' operations. Chainalysis reported on Thursday that the total transaction volume flowing to suspected trafficking networks (primarily located in Southeast Asia) "reached hundreds of millions of dollars in identified services."

Chinese listed companies distribute historic dividends before the Lunar New Year, totaling 348.8 billion RMB (approximately 50.5 billion USD), setting a new company record. Compared to previous years, this dividend distribution has increased by over 20%. The timing is just before China's peak consumption season, traditionally a period when excess liquidity leads investors to chase yields, and funds may shift to other investments. Historical data shows that similar liquidity events are accompanied by increased Bitcoin trading volume and rising risk appetite.

The American Bankers Association (ABA) urges the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) to slow down the approval process for national trust bank charters for crypto and stablecoin companies until the regulatory environment under the GENIUS Act becomes clearer. The association warns that national trust charters could be used to circumvent SEC or CFTC registration and review, even though these companies' activities would normally trigger securities or derivatives regulation.

Due to a lack of investor demand, traders are focusing on concerning US macroeconomic data, and Bitcoin open interest has fallen to $34 billion. Some of the decline is also attributed to forced liquidations, which totaled $5.2 billion over the past two weeks. In the past month, Bitcoin has dropped 28%, gold has regained the $5,000 psychological level, and the S&P 500 is only 1% away from its all-time high.

Cardano integrates with the cross-chain messaging system LayerZero, unlocking access to over 160 blockchains and more than 400 types of OFT tokens (with a total market cap of over $80 billion). LayerZero has facilitated over $200 billion in cross-chain transaction volume. However, data shows that Cardano's total locked value is only about $125 million, with stablecoin market cap around $37 million.

CFTC Chairman Michael Selig appoints a 35-member advisory committee of senior executives from the crypto industry to provide guidance on the regulation of breakthrough technologies such as AI and blockchain, with market founder Shayne Coplan of Polymarket predicted to be selected. Traditional financial giants including CME, DTCC, and Nasdaq representatives.

The value of Bitcoin holdings held by El Salvador has significantly decreased, while credit default swaps have risen to the highest level in five months, raising concerns about the country's IMF loan negotiations. Bloomberg reported that the reserve value has fallen from a peak of approximately $800 million in Bitcoin in October 2025, shrinking by nearly $300 million in just four months.

According to the latest quarterly report, major sports betting platform DraftKings plans to expand the dedicated betting platform DraftKings Predictions within the next year. DraftKings has adjusted its fiscal year 2026 revenue forecast to $6.5-6.9 billion, which caused the stock price to drop 15% after hours.