The SUI price could still drop by 32% despite the ongoing upward trend

SUI experienced a strong surge in a short period, rising over 13% in just one day. This unexpected rally has attracted the attention of many traders, prompting many to jump in quickly. However, such sudden price increases often carry risks, even if they appear very solid on the surface.

To predict the next move, we need to analyze price, capital flow, and investor behavior in a simple yet effective way.

This article will explain why SUI can still continue to rise beyond 30% within the week, while also warning about the potential for a deep correction. Currently, the correction scenario is showing signs of dominance.

SUI accelerating too quickly

The SUI price has rebounded strongly from the support zone of $1.30 – $1.45, which is considered a solid “floor” as buying pressure continuously appears. When the price stops falling and begins to recover from this area, investors see this as a sign of SUI’s intrinsic strength.

As soon as the price moves higher, new capital immediately flows in, turning a slow recovery into a powerful rally. This movement hints at a bullish inverse head-and-shoulders pattern, but SUI needs another 32% increase to confirm this pattern.

SUI Price Movement | Source: TradingViewOn the chart, SUI has not yet broken through the important resistance level near $2.59. This is a zone where selling pressure often increases, as many investors take profits. If the SUI price breaks above and sustains above this level, the bullish pattern will be confirmed.

Until SUI reaches and reacts to this resistance zone, the upward trend has not been fully confirmed.

Additionally, many experts on X also emphasize that three bottom touches are one of the main reasons behind SUI’s sudden rally.

Capital flow and leverage signals

To assess the true strength of the rally, investors often use the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) indicator to determine whether capital is flowing into or out of the asset.

Currently, the CMF is in positive territory, indicating that new capital continues to pour into SUI, reinforcing confidence in active buying participation.

SUI Capital Flow | Source: TradingViewHowever, there is a warning signal: earlier, when SUI’s price increased, the CMF formed lower lows. In other words, the price was rising but the capital flow was weakening in the short term – a sign that early investors are starting to take profits.

Another risk comes from leveraged derivatives trading. When most investors use leverage to bet on rising prices, the market becomes unstable. Currently, long positions dominate, while short positions are quite limited. This imbalance has contributed to pushing SUI’s price higher as short sellers are forced to close their positions.

However, this also carries significant risks. If the price stalls or drops slightly, leveraged long positions could all exit simultaneously, leading to a sharp and deep correction.

The 32% downside risk still exists

A positive point is that community interest is gradually returning, but not overly eager or emotional. Social media attention is stabilizing, indicating the market has not yet entered a peak phase.

Social Media Conversation SUI | Source: SantimentNevertheless, the key factor remains price movement. If SUI cannot sustain its upward momentum and loses momentum, the first important support zone is at $1.45 – the origin of the recent rally. A correction back to this zone is normal and not too concerning.

If selling pressure intensifies and combined with leveraged long positions exiting en masse, SUI’s price could continue to fall sharply to $1.30. From the current level, that would be about a 32% decrease.

Social media data also shows a positive signal: after months of decline, interest in SUI has started to increase again since early January.

Mr. Giáo