#预测市场 The market reaction to predictive data is very intuitive. The probability of Wash on Polymarket and Kalshi surged from 7-10% to 48-52% within a week, while Hasset dropped from 85%/81% to 42%/39%. This reversal indicates that the market has re-priced the information.

Key signals come from several aspects: first, Trump's public statement "Yes, I think he is," which carries significant weight in political predictions; second, JPMorgan CEO Dimon's supportive statement; third, the skepticism Hasset faced for "being too close to the President" — which became a negative asset, leading the market to lower trust in candidates who are overly close to the centers of power.

The adjustment of interview arrangements is also noteworthy — Hasset's interview was canceled and rescheduled, while Wash completed his last week, implying a certain shift in the momentum of the selection process.

From an on-chain perspective, such policy expectations usually first reflect in prediction markets before affecting macro asset pricing. The nomination of the Federal Reserve Chair involves subsequent monetary policy tone, which is an upstream variable influencing risk assets, and warrants continuous tracking of the decision-making process.