#预测市场 I just saw on Polymarket that the probability of Bitcoin reaching $100,000 is only 10%. Previously, people in the community said this probability was much higher. Why has it suddenly dropped so much? 😅

After taking a closer look at the data, the probability of $95,000 is 32%, and there's an 18% chance it drops below $80,000. It seems that market sentiment is indeed adjusting. Does this mean that everyone’s expectations for Bitcoin to hit $100,000 this year are not as optimistic? Or is it because the year is ending and time is running out?

I'm a bit confused. How exactly does the prediction market work? How are these probabilities calculated? Does having more participants make the predictions more accurate? Can someone explain it? I want to understand what the market is thinking. 🤔