What is the underlying logic behind this round of the bull market???


First, let's review the previous Bitcoin surge to lay a foundation.
The story of Bitcoin's rise is the background, but stories alone are not enough; retail investors are also insufficient. Retail investors are the main drivers of altcoins and meme coins because they love to get rich overnight, so they are all "chives." The story of the last cycle was the Federal Reserve printing money, but liquidity needs tools and channels; otherwise, it cannot enter the market.
The core liquidity sources for the last Bitcoin cycle were Three Arrows Capital and Grayscale Funds. The key factor here was the premium because GBTC had a premium. When you buy Bitcoin, issue Bitcoin funds in the primary market, and sell in the secondary market, you can make money for free. Then, use the profits to buy more Bitcoin or use securities as collateral to borrow and leverage, continuing to buy Bitcoin and pushing up the premium. This heats up the topic, attracting more institutional money. The fundamental reason was that there was no Bitcoin ETF at the time, so the premium was high, and this premium was also a reason to buy GBTC. The core of the last cycle was connecting the cryptocurrency market with the securities market, providing tools and channels, with the premium acting as the catalyst. The flywheel was that, on one hand, as Bitcoin's price rose, GBTC's price rose, attracting institutions; on the other hand, holding GBTC with a premium as collateral to borrow more funds and buy more Bitcoin, pushing prices higher, leading to a rapid price increase.
Finally, due to the Luna event and the collapse of the crypto market, the premium disappeared, the flywheel stopped, and everything came to a halt. Three Arrows Capital went bankrupt, and Grayscale nearly faced a crisis.
This cycle's story involves Trump, serving as a policy-level insurance, guarding against political black swans. But the core remains liquidity tools.
The mechanism this time involves MicroStrategy issuing convertible bonds to buy Bitcoin, and MicroStrategy's stock has a high premium, amplifying Bitcoin's gains. Convertible bonds, as corporate bonds, provide a channel for traditional financial institutions (like insurance, pension funds, etc.) to enter the Bitcoin market because many institutions can only buy fixed-income bonds, not securities. The bond market is a trillion-dollar market, much larger than the securities market. MicroStrategy's convertible bonds have outperformed Bitcoin this year because the premium provides amplification. Bond investors get principal protection and a small interest, and more importantly, they can convert to equity at Bitcoin's high market value to enjoy excess premium. This creates a flywheel: on one side, buying Bitcoin with bonds to increase the premium; on the other side, as Bitcoin appreciates, bond prices rise, attracting more capital inflow. This causes Bitcoin's price to soar.
This design is more reliable because bonds can only be redeemed after five years. If the price is not good, they can convert to shares, greatly reducing the risk of a blow-up. The five-year mark is after the next halving cycle, and the price is expected to be higher.
If played well, this tool can, with Bitcoin's ongoing deflation, push Bitcoin's price to $500,000 USD in the next cycle. MicroStrategy's market value could reach trillions, becoming the largest Bitcoin vehicle, connecting the bond market and the Bitcoin market.
BTC4,53%
MEME2,71%
LUNA4,49%
TRUMP4,35%
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