From 2017 to 2021 to Now: Predicting the Next Alt Season

Current Market Data: The Setup

Let’s break down the indicators you shared:

• Fear and Greed Index: 41 (fearful sentiment) → Historically, fear often precedes big market moves.
• Altcoin Season Index: 49/100 → Neutral, sitting on the edge of tipping into altseason.
• Average Crypto RSI: 45.9 → Oversold, suggesting many coins are undervalued.
• Bitcoin Dominance: 58% (down 3.07%) → A falling Bitcoin dominance often signals capital rotation into alts.
• Ethereum Dominance: 13.7% (up 1.94%) → ETH gaining ground is usually the first step before altseason kicks in.
• Other Altcoins’ Dominance: 28.3% (up 1.13%) → Smaller caps starting to gain traction.
  This combination mirrors the early stages of previous alt seasons—fearful sentiment, a weakening Bitcoin dominance, and capital rotation into ETH and other alts.

Lessons from the 2017 Cycle

In 2017, Bitcoin rallied first, hitting nearly $20,000 in December. Only after BTC cooled off did altcoins explode in value, with Ethereum, Ripple (XRP), and smaller projects delivering 10x to 100x returns in early 2018.
Key lesson: Alt season lags Bitcoin’s peak by weeks to months. Investors who rotated profits from BTC into alts captured massive gains.

Lessons from the 2021 Cycle

In 2021, Bitcoin’s dominance dropped from 70% in January to around 40% by May. During this time, Ethereum doubled in dominance, and meme coins like DOGE and SHIB skyrocketed. Layer 1 ecosystems (SOL, AVAX) and DeFi tokens also saw record highs.
Key lesson: Ethereum’s strength was the trigger. Once ETH broke out, smaller altcoins followed in waves—DeFi, NFTs, and meme tokens each had their turn.

What Today’s Data Suggests

Based on the current data:

• BTC dominance at 58% and falling → We are entering a phase similar to pre-altseason periods of past cycles.
• ETH dominance rising → Suggests Ethereum is gaining traction, historically the green light for alt rotations.
• RSI oversold at 45.9 → Many altcoins are trading below fair value, offering strong entry points.
• Sentiment in “fear” at 41 → This often signals the market is ready for a bounce when least expected.

Prediction: When Will the Next Alt Season Hit?

• Short-Term Outlook: Over the next 1–3 months, expect Ethereum to outperform Bitcoin if dominance continues rising.
• Mid-Term Outlook: If Bitcoin consolidates around current highs without crashing, liquidity will rotate into top altcoins.
• Full Altseason Trigger: When Bitcoin stalls and dominance dips below ~50%, altcoins could surge—similar to the 2017 and 2021 patterns.
  If history repeats, we may be weeks to a few months away from a full altcoin season, with smaller caps likely to rally the hardest.

How to Prepare for Altseason

1. Watch Bitcoin Dominance: A continued drop below 55% is the strongest sign.
2. Track ETH Performance: Ethereum leading the market is a bullish signal for alts.
3. Diversify Wisely: Rotate into quality projects first (ETH, SOL, AVAX) before chasing riskier small caps.
4. Manage Risk: Altseason brings extreme gains, but also brutal corrections.

Conclusion

All signs point to the market setting up for the next altseason. With Bitcoin dominance falling, Ethereum gaining strength, and alts showing oversold conditions, history suggests the rotation may not be far off. For traders in the UK, the best way to be ready is to trade on Gate.com. With a user-friendly yet professional interface, Gate offers deep liquidity and advanced charts—helping you capture the full potential of the next altcoin wave.

FAQs

1. What is altseason?
   It’s when altcoins outperform Bitcoin, often delivering much higher returns.
2. What triggers altseason?
   A drop in Bitcoin dominance and rising Ethereum strength usually trigger it.
3. Are we in altseason now?
   Not yet, but indicators like BTC dominance at 58% and ETH gaining ground suggest we’re close.
4. How long does altseason last?
   It varies but usually spans weeks to a few months, with different alt sectors rallying in waves.
5. Where can I trade altcoins safely?
   On platforms like Gate.com, which provides secure trading and a wide selection of altcoins.