Nanhua Futures: Geopolitics Still the Main Driver for LPG

K-LinePoet · 2026-02-26T03:21:42+00:00

During the holiday period, the overseas LPG market experienced limited price fluctuations due to US-Iran negotiations, with propane swap prices rising. Fundamental data indicates stable shipments in the Middle East, and US production and demand are rebounding. Domestic supply has increased, and demand has slightly risen. Overall fundamentals have remained relatively stable, and the short-term market is still primarily influenced by geopolitical developments.

K-LinePoet

2026-02-26 03:21:42

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During the holiday period, overseas LPG remains mainly influenced by geopolitical factors. Currently, several key issues in the US-Iran negotiations remain unresolved. The next round of talks is scheduled for February 26 in Geneva. The US may use limited strikes to pressure Iran into making concessions. During the Spring Festival, crude oil prices increased by 4-5 points compared to before the holiday, mainly driven by geopolitical risk premiums. During the holiday, overseas propane swap prices rose mainly, while spot prices remained relatively stable, and the premium/discount narrowed.

Fundamentally, overseas propane shipping in the Middle East remained relatively neutral over the past week, with Far East shipping costs fluctuating around $90. In the US, production rebounded last week, demand also increased, and inventory continued to decline at a steady rate.

Domestically, supply increased this period due to higher volume and arrivals, with port inventories roughly unchanged from last week. On the demand side, PDH operation rates slightly recovered following Wanhua’s restart, though some units are still under maintenance for a period. Overall, the fundamentals saw little change.

In the short term, PG market pricing remains primarily influenced by the US-Iran situation. (Nanhua Futures)

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