Final warning! Buffett indicator skyrocketing, $BTC is standing at the crossroads of a "triple bubble." In the next 24 hours, it will either soar to the sky or face complete ruin!

Market observers point out that $BTC is entering a phase where macro trends are more important than narratives. The stock market is near all-time highs, real yields remain high, and the credit market is expanding into increasingly opaque corners of the financial system. These conditions do not guarantee an imminent crisis, but they set the stage for high volatility in risk assets.

For $BTC, the core question is whether stress will emerge within the underlying financial system with high asset valuations, and how quickly policymakers can act to contain it. Some macro strategists describe the current landscape as a “triple bubble”: stock valuations approaching historic extremes, real estate being suppressed by nearly 6% mortgage rates, and private credit management reaching $2 trillion. This framework emphasizes the sequence of events.

If credit problems arise first, liquidity could evaporate instantly, and $BTC is likely to be sold along with other assets. If policymakers intervene early before the crisis spreads, $BTC could become a high-beta liquidity trading asset, rebounding faster than traditional risk assets. Financial systems rarely collapse solely due to overvaluation; collapses usually occur when credit and bond markets are forced into forced sales.

Recent data shows stress signals are accumulating but have not yet triggered a collapse. On February 23, the US high-yield bond option-adjusted spread was 2.95%, still relatively tight compared to crisis periods. On February 18, the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet was $6.613 trillion, increasing by about $28.8 billion over four weeks, indicating moderate expansion. On February 20, the 10-year inflation-protected bond’s real yield was around 1.80%.

Stablecoin market cap is about $308.8 billion, with a 30-day change of -0.18%, essentially flat. Since early 2026, $BTC spot ETF funds have outflowed about $2.6 billion, with nearly $4.3 billion in outflows over the past five weeks. Deflationary liquidations often originate in the credit market rather than equity indices.

Widening high-yield bond spreads, pressure on financing markets, and soaring volatility make cash the only desired position. $BTC’s performance in such phases is predictable: perpetual funding rates turn negative, leverage liquidations cause holdings to plummet, liquidity exits lead to shrinking stablecoin supply, and ETF outflows accelerate. March 2020 is a typical reference point.

During the global liquidity shock, $BTC plunged nearly 40% on March 12, along with stocks, credit, and commodities. A credit-driven liquidation can cause $BTC to fluctuate between -20% and -40% within days. VanEck, in early February 2026, noted that $BTC futures open interest peaked above $90 billion in October 2025, then reduced leverage by over 45%.

Moody’s projects private credit management will exceed $2 trillion by 2026 and approach $4 trillion by 2030. Reuters reports that US banks have invested $25 billion in this sector. This growth concentrates credit risk in structures with lower transparency, longer lock-up periods, and weaker contractual protections.

If a credit event forces private credit portfolios to sell assets, a chain reaction can occur through margin calls and collateral pressures impacting public markets. As the most liquid and continuously traded risk asset, $BTC disproportionately bears the brunt of such sell-offs. $BTC futures open interest fell about 45% from its October 2025 peak above $90 billion.

The opposite scenario begins with clear policy support: Fed balance sheet expansion, emergency measures, and declining real yields. In this environment, $BTC’s response is also predictable: funding rates and basis normalize, liquidity returns, stablecoin supply increases, ETF fund flows stabilize or turn positive, and open interest rebuilds.

In a well-defined rescue environment, $BTC often acts as a high-beta liquidity asset, rebounding faster than traditional risk assets. It benefits from declining real yields and is a liquidity rights asset with fixed supply. The March 2023 banking turmoil exemplifies this. As market expectations shift toward easing, $BTC rose 26% in a week and about 40% over ten days.

In February 2026, $BTC surged from around $60,000 to over $70,000 in a single day, the largest daily gain since March 2023, highlighting that macro risk sentiment remains the dominant driver during stress windows. In March 2020, $BTC crashed along with all assets, but the Fed cut rates to zero and launched unlimited quantitative easing within weeks.

$BTC recovered from its March 12 lows and increased fivefold over the following year, driven by persistently negative real yields and expanded fiscal spending. The lesson: $BTC’s beta to liquidity cycles is nearly higher than any other asset, and timing is more critical than narratives.

The most chaotic scenario occurs when neither path is favorable: stubborn inflation, bond markets demanding higher term premiums, and high real yields limit policymakers’ ability to quickly stabilize without reigniting inflation fears. In such environments, $BTC may remain range-bound, caught between safe-haven pressures and devaluation hedging narratives.

The 10-year TIPS yield at 1.80% remains well above zero or negative real yields seen during strong $BTC rallies. The Housing Market Index’s 30-year fixed mortgage rate averaged 6.01% on February 19. The Buffett indicator stands at about 206%, the highest in history according to Advisor Perspectives, implying limited room for further equity valuation expansion unless earnings grow or discount rates fall.

A simple tracking framework updates weekly: changes in the Fed’s total assets over 4-8 weeks; 30-day stablecoin market cap changes; 2-4 week high-yield bond spread shifts; 2-4 week changes in 10-year real yields. When these indicators weaken significantly, $BTC tends to be highly volatile during liquidity events; when they improve and inflation expectations rise, $BTC often outperforms the market.

Current readings show a neutral-to-bearish liquidity environment: Fed assets have slightly expanded but not significantly; stablecoin supply is flat or slightly down; credit spreads remain tight; real yields are high and persistent; $BTC spot ETF outflows continue; derivatives open interest has nearly halved from its peak. The market seems to be waiting for a catalyst.

An operational monitoring framework emphasizes credit and crypto on-chain signals: widening high-yield spreads from lows; rising US Treasury volatility and term premiums; stable or declining Fed balance sheet alongside widening spreads. Crypto signals include: sharp declines in open interest; shrinking stablecoin market cap; continued ETF outflows.

Confirmation of a rescue: a clear weekly rise in Fed assets; decline in 10-year TIPS yields; growth in stablecoin supply and normalized derivatives funding rates. The shift from liquidation to rescue can happen quickly, as seen in March 2020, when $BTC first plunged then rebounded following policy support.

The triple bubble theory’s greatest value is not in predicting crises but in providing a sequence framework. Credit breakdown triggers liquidations, leading to $BTC being sold cheaply; policy interventions trigger liquidity surges, causing $BTC to outperform traditional assets. The current macro landscape indicates markets have priced in stress but have not yet seen a credit chain collapse forcing selling.

The next major move in $BTC depends not on whether bubbles exist but on whether credit first breaks or the Fed intervenes first.

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