3800 Points on the Line: Why Dividends Are the Best Layout Window?

Today, the rebound strength of the A-shares market is relatively weak. Even at the intraday high, it remains far from the 5-day moving average.

In this oscillating pattern, the attitude of funds is more interesting than the index itself. Over the past week, the entire market ETFs have net redemptions of over 11.8 billion yuan. Broad-based and sector-themed ETFs are mainly flowing out, but dividend strategy ETFs are attracting nearly 9.3 billion yuan against the trend. Specifically, the CSI Dividend ETF招商 (515080) has experienced continuous net inflows for 8 consecutive trading days, totaling 985 million yuan. Yesterday, when the market plunged, this ETF saw a single-day net subscription of 111 million yuan, with a cumulative net subscription of 391 million yuan over the past five days.

Funds are deploying with real money, supported by two solid logical foundations of dividend assets: valuation and dividends.

First, valuation. The latest dividend yield of the CSI Dividend Index has reached 4.74%, while the ten-year government bond yield is only 1.83%, widening the interest spread to 3.2 percentage points. This level of spread has been considered high in the past decade. For allocation funds like insurance capital and bank wealth management, which need to cover liability costs, this spread signifies significant value. Historically, when the dividend yield of the CSI Dividend Index approaches 5%, it often indicates a valuation bottom.

Second, dividends. On March 23, the CSI Dividend ETF招商 (515080) completed its first dividend distribution for 2026, paying out 0.15 yuan in cash dividends per 10 units. This is the 16th dividend distribution since the fund’s inception, with a total payout exceeding 4 yuan per 10 units. Analyzing its dividend history reveals a pattern: since 2023, it has maintained a quarterly dividend rhythm, with annual dividend payout ratios stable between 4.14% and 4.78% from 2021 to 2025. This quarterly dividend mechanism effectively increases the cash flow return frequency from annual to quarterly, enhancing the experience and predictability for funds that require cash flow management.

The sustainability of dividends ultimately depends on the underlying holdings. The top six sectors in the CSI Dividend Index are energy (24.79%), financials (23.5%), industrials (19.23%), materials (14.79%), optional materials (8.89%), and consumer (1.99%). Companies like COSCO Shipping Holdings, Guanghui Energy, Gengkuang Energy, and Shanxi Coal International have ample cash reserves, with dividend payout ratios generally above 30%.

Fundamentally, the index’s net profit attributable to shareholders has steadily grown over the years, and total cash dividends have also increased.

More importantly, the index is rebalanced every December, removing samples with declining dividend yields and replacing them with companies with higher dividend yields and stronger profitability. After the 2025 rebalancing, the average ROE of the added samples is 12.93%, compared to only 5.33% for those removed.

In terms of product performance, the CSI Dividend ETF招商 (515080) has achieved a total return of 107.08% since inception, outperforming the benchmark by 73.28%.

The core of dividend strategies is never about short-term price differences but about obtaining sustainable cash returns. In an environment of increasing macro uncertainty, assets that can continue to pay dividends are truly scarce resources. I checked the number of individual holders adding to their positions recently, and it has indeed been rising steadily—this logic seems to be gaining more and more recognition.

Source: ETF Red Flag

(Edited by: Zhang Xiaobo)

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