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$BTC
From a macro standpoint, it’s difficult to justify a sustained bullish reversal at this stage. Historically, Bitcoin cycles have adhered relatively closely to the 4-year structure, and a bottom forming 252 days earlier than expected would be highly atypical.
Additionally, we are still late in the broader business cycle, with persistent inflation and elevated interest rates continuing to act as headwinds. These conditions have not historically supported the early stages of a new bull market.
Technically, current price action still allows for upside movement into 1W 21EMA which is also a HTF SR level (78.4k) or even higher towards the YO and 1W 100MA (87/88k) region without invalidating the overarching bearish market structure.
Until key higher time frame levels are reclaimed and supported by improving macro conditions, this rally should be treated with caution rather than confirmation of a trend reversal. #btc