On Wednesday evening, the price of Bitcoin rebounded again after testing the 109700 line and came to a halt, still failing to form an effective breakthrough. BTC has maintained this wide range fluctuation rhythm for nearly 3 days. Although the previous test did not fall below the 107000 short-term chip gathering area, the large open orders selling position above 110000 also has very strong resistance. Currently, the coin price is fluctuating back and forth in the multi-short handover area. If there is no significant breakthrough in the future, it still shows a continuous Long Wick Candle testing pressure trend, so feel free to short!

Ethereum shows a certain strong posture in the short term, and has also synchronized with a rebound in the evening. Currently, signs of exhaustion have appeared, and the focus moving forward will be on the market buying power. As long as there is no upward breakthrough in the 2700-2730 area, there will still be a possibility of downward liquidation, as the positions of the bulls are already quite large at this point. Those who have been following my insights recently should know that my bearish perspective is very clear. Since the last time BTC had a secondary rebound testing the historical high without success, I have consistently provided a high shorting strategy. Although there has been a rebound in between, the overall large trend structure is still moving in a fluctuating downward direction. I personally believe that this reflects a good grasp of the market trend.
In terms of the current trend, operations need to respond flexibly to the market movements. This continuous oscillation rhythm requires not being too rigid whether going long or short; rigidity will lead to losses, or it may result in being caught in both long and short positions! Profit pullbacks are too severe; follow the short-term trend and restrain your greed. Acting in accordance with the market trends will generally not go wrong. However, whether going long or short, remember to defend well to prevent sudden market changes, especially since there has been a long period of consolidation. Don't be caught off guard. For the short-term evening suggestions, I still maintain the previous viewpoint: as long as the coin price does not stabilize above the 110,000 mark, the main strategy is to short at high points.

July 9 (Wednesday) Bitcoin (BTC) intraday analysis and early morning forecast
Current status: Intraday Bitcoin fluctuates around 108,000-109,700. As of 23:13 Beijing time, BTC is quoted at 108919.4 (24 hours +0.65%).
In the 4-hour chart of the technical pattern: a triangular convergence pattern has formed, with upper pressure at 109,300-109,700 (100-hour moving average and 50% Fibonacci retracement level), and key support at 107,300-106,300 below. If it falls below, it may test 105,000 (the dividing line of macro strength and weakness).
Daily: The long wick candle indicates heavy selling pressure around 110,000, with MACD momentum weakening and RSI in the neutral range (51.4), direction unclear.
Early morning trend prediction (until 6 AM on July 10)
Shorting risk: If it cannot consistently break and stabilize above 110,000, there is still a possibility of a pullback to 108,000 (on-chain short-term support level). If it continues to fall below, it may quickly drop to the 105,000-105,500 area (triangle lower edge).
⚠️ **Key Event**: The Federal Reserve's June meeting minutes will be released in the early morning (if hawkish signals, it will suppress risk assets).
Ethereum (ETH) intraday analysis and early morning forecast
Technical Pattern: The 4-hour chart shows a double top resistance formed between 2,650 and 2,670. Although the short-term MACD has a golden cross pointing upwards, the RSI is not overbought; support below to watch is around 2550 (a dense area of institutional buying). If it continues to break down, it may test the 2470-2500 area (monthly double bottom neckline). The low on-chain Gas fees reflect insufficient ecological activity, which restricts short-term gains.
Early morning short-term strategy: Refer to the evening rebound high point of around 109700, continue to short at a high, with the defense still above the 110000 level. The downside target remains unchanged, focusing on the two positions of 108000 and 107000. For Ethereum, continue to short directly at the current price of 2650, with the defense still above 2700. On the downside, continue to focus on the two positions of 2550 and 2500. If there is a pullback and it stops, decide whether to enter a long position based on personal circumstances. My strategy remains unchanged, still shorting at highs. First, establish a direction and do not keep hoping for both long and short profits. It might be luck once or twice, but you cannot be right all the time. Trade strictly according to your own plan.
Key Risk Warning
1. Macroeconomic Events
- **Trump's Tariff Policy**: The 25%-40% tariffs effective August 1 may trigger risk aversion. If the list of new tariff countries is announced in the early hours, it could lead to a short-term crash.
- **Federal Reserve Minutes**: If it suggests delaying interest rate cuts, it will suppress liquidity in the crypto market.
2. **On-chain signals**:
- Bitcoin **$106,738-$98,566** range has 16,800 addresses holding support, but a drop below **$106,800** will trigger stop-loss orders.
**Key Operations in the Early Morning**: Focus on **light short-term positions**, and strictly set stop-losses. Pay attention to the **Federal Reserve minutes at 2 AM Beijing time** and **Trump's tariff dynamics**. If negative impacts arise, ETH may accelerate its fall, while BTC is still not recommended for blind chasing of highs; be wary of false breakouts enticing long positions. That's all for now; if there are changes in the evening market, I'll update the strategy in a timely manner. Finally, I wish all my brothers smooth sailing!