today's follow point

1. Whale sell-offs trigger turmoil: Massive BTC sell-offs have led to a sharp shift in market sentiment, with short-term funds now leaning towards risk-hedging assets.
2. ETH adjustment trend is obvious: the decline is much greater than BTC, and if it breaks below the $4,400–$4,500 range, be cautious of increased slipping risks.
3. Options Expiration Storm: Up to $13.8B in BTC options expire today, with key price levels at $108k–$112k, trading volatility implies significant pressure.
4. Macroeconomic expectation turning point: The market's expectation for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve has become more cautious, and the interest rate deadlock may continue to suppress risk assets.
5. Funds continue to bet on the ETH ecosystem: Despite the current pullback of ETH, the ETF's annual net inflow has approached $500M, indicating that medium-term confidence remains intact.
Interpretation of the Two Market Structures
• Short-term structure: BTC and ETH are both under pressure, with market volatility being amplified by peak whale sell-offs and option pressures.
• Mid-term structure: Despite the current weakness, the institutional holdings of ETH and ETF fund flows remain robust, showing potential for recovery;
• Risk warning: Whale sell-offs and options expiration are fermenting in sync, and there is a risk of "anchoring price fluctuations" and even "testing support" in the short term.