📊 NFP Night Flash Report | Dollar Cools Off, Crypto Heats Up?

August NFP came in at just +75K ( with July’s +73K together marking multi-year lows ), and unemployment ticked up to 4.3%. U.S. bond yields dropped to ~4.2%, the DXY slipped, and markets instantly priced September rate-cut odds at over 90%.

⚖️ Macro Translation
Weak NFP = Fed forced dovish → Dollar drops, risk assets pump.
Strong NFP ( if it had surprised big ) = Dollar spikes, crypto gets slashed.
Historical notes: In bull years, ETH fell -21% (2017) and -12% (2021) in September. But October “Uptober” has often averaged +20% gains. September is for trimming; October is for sprinting.

📊 Market Watch
FedWatch: 95% odds of a rate cut — nearly locked in.
Institutions: August ETF + treasury inflows bought ~2.5M ETH, 33x monthly issuance.
Whales: Some BTC OGs rotated into ETH and fully staked → clear capital shift.
Volatility: On NFP day, BTC’s average move is 1.7x that of a normal day.

🎯 Key Levels
$BTC : Support at 108K, resistance 112K → 116K.
$ETH : Battleground at 4,250 — hold that and target 4.8K → 5K.
$SOL : $200 is a refuel zone; with volume, targets 216 → 238.

🧭 Trading Playbook
Conservative: Wait for confirmation before chasing — less upside, less risk.
Aggressive: Scale into dips (BTC 108K, ETH 4.25K, SOL near 200), stops must be tight.
Swing: September chop is the “bull market lunchbox” — buy retracements, keep year-end targets (BTC 120K, ETH 5K+) intact.

🐂 Conclusion
This isn’t just another data day — it’s a policy reset. Weak NFP = Fed goes dovish, dollar loses footing, crypto takes the baton. September may wobble, but October is often the launchpad. The question is: are you just watching, or getting on board?
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📊 NFP Night Report｜The US dollar has cooled down, has the crypto world heated up?
In August, NFP was only +75K (together with July's +73K, creating a near-term low), and the unemployment rate rose to 4.3%. U.S. Treasury yields fell to ~4.2%, and the DXY dollar index retreated, with the market pricing the probability of a rate cut in September at over 90%.

⚖️ Macroscopic Translation
Weak NFP = Fed has to be dovish → Dollar drops, risk assets rise.
Strong NFP (assuming it breaks the chart) = USD surges, the crypto market suffers.
Historical archaeology: In the bull market years, September saw ETH drop -21% (2017) and -12% (2021); however, October, known as "Uptober," often averages a rise of 20%+. September is for fitness, while October is for the sprint.

📊 Market Observation
FedWatch: 95% chance of rate cut, almost certain.
Institution: In August, the ETF + treasury purchased ~2.5M ETH, which is 33 times the new issuance for the month.
Whale: There is a Bitcoin OG selling off, transferring to ETH and fully staking → Funds are clearly shifting.
Volatility: The BTC volatility on NFP day is often 1.7 times that of a regular day.

🎯 Technical Level
$BTC: Support at 108K, resistance at 112K → 116K
$ETH: The key support and resistance level is at 4,250. If it holds, it will challenge 4.8K → 5K.
$SOL: 200 USD is the supply station, looking for a breakout towards 216 → 238

🧭 Operational Strategy
Conservatives: Wait to confirm stability before chasing, eat less drama to avoid getting hurt.
Aggressive buyers: buy in batches at low prices (BTC around 108K, ETH around 4.25K, SOL around 200), with stop-loss set.
Swing Traders: September's fluctuations are the "Bull Market Bento Box"—add positions on dips, year-end targets remain unchanged (BTC 120K, ETH 5K+).

🐂 Conclusion
This is not an ordinary data day, but a policy calibration event. Weak NFP = Fed must be dovish, the dollar loses strength, and the crypto circle takes over. September may be shaky, but October is often the launch pad for rockets. You need to decide whether to watch the show or get on board.