The macro outlook written at the beginning of the year has not been contradicted so far.

Let's talk about some understandings:

1. Macroeconomic analysis often seems to interpret trends, but in essence, it is all about cleaning up microdata.

2. Trends are often hidden in those overlooked, subtle structural changes, and only when they accumulate to a certain critical point do they erupt into macro phenomena. The laws of trends tend to be constant.

3. The total data is more of a lagging result rather than a driving source of trends. If you only start from the results to infer the logic, you can always find a reasonable explanation, which is why macro analysis can easily become ineffective.

4. Macro ultimately studies the psychology and behavior of society and groups. These are all irrational things.