🌕 In-depth Analysis: Solana Spot ETF is about to launch, can SOL achieve an "epic rise" by the end of the year?

Bitwise's Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan's "epic rally" rhetoric, combined with the spot ETF applications from giants like Grayscale, VanEck, and Fidelity, has brought Solana into the spotlight of the market. As a participant in Gate's Mid-Autumn creative incentive event, I will delve into the future trends of SOL from three perspectives: market background, personal predictions, and trading strategies.

1️⃣ The "catalyst" effect of Solana spot ETF on short-term prices

I believe that the application for the spot ETF itself is already providing strong emotional support for the price of SOL. The key lies in the first decision deadline of October 10th set by the SEC for the VanEck application.

· If approved (low probability but huge impact): This will be an explosive positive development. It will open a completely compliant and convenient investment channel for traditional capital in SOL. Referring to the capital inflow situation during the early listing of Bitcoin ETFs, even if only a small amount of funds flows in, it is enough to push the SOL price up by 50% or more in a short period. The market will fall into a "FOMO" (fear of missing out) sentiment, and prices may experience irrational surges.
· If rejected (a high probability event): The market may experience a short-term correction due to "expected landing." But the key is that this is not the "end point." Just like Bitcoin ETFs have been rejected multiple times before finally being approved, the more important significance of this application is that it elevates Solana to the same level of importance as Bitcoin and Ethereum as a "mainstream asset." The continuous applications from institutions convey strong confidence to the market, and the correction may actually present a good opportunity to buy at lower levels.
· Postponement decision (maximum probability): The SEC may choose to extend the review period. In this case, the market will enter a prolonged "expectation speculation" phase, positive sentiment will continue, and prices may slowly rise amidst fluctuations, waiting for the next key time node.

Short-term conclusion: Regardless of the results in early October, Solana has already achieved a strategic victory. Short-term volatility will intensify, but the price's bottom support will become exceptionally strong due to institutional recognition.

2️⃣ Year-end SOL price range prediction: Balancing rationality and frenzy

Predicting prices is always risky, but based on fundamentals and technicals, we can make a reasonable inference.

· Fundamental Support: The Solana ecosystem has demonstrated strong resilience after undergoing the test of the FTX incident. Its DeFi, NFT, meme coins, and Depin ecosystems continue to thrive, and the network's performance and stability are continuously improving. This is the intrinsic core of its value.
· Expected ETF Boost: Even if the ETF is rejected in October, there will still be nearly 3 months until the end of the year, and the market will continue to speculate on the expectation of the "next application."
· Macroeconomic Environment: The Federal Reserve's expectations of interest rate cuts will be a booster for all risk assets.

My prediction range:

· Conservative Scenario: If the ETF is rejected and the macro environment is not favorable, SOL is expected to find strong support in the $120 - $180 range and undergo consolidation.
· Benchmark Scenario: If the ETF is expected to continue to ferment (such as being postponed), SOL is expected to challenge its previous high, with a price range of $200 - $300 by the end of the year.
· Optimistic Scenario: If the ETF unexpectedly passes or there are positive developments, combined with bullish market sentiment, SOL is expected to initiate an "epic rise," targeting $350 - $500 or even higher.

(Disclaimer: The above is only a personal opinion and does not constitute any investment advice.)

3️⃣ Recent successful experiences in SOL trading strategies share

In the recent high volatility market, I mainly adopted the following strategies, which have shown significant results:

1. Core position holding, flexible swing position: I will hold most of my position as a long-term core holding, firmly believing in the long-term value of Solana. I only allocate a small portion of funds for swing trading. This allows me to capture the upward trend while avoiding the anxiety caused by short-term fluctuations.
2. Focus on ecological development: I not only trade SOL itself but also pay attention to the leading projects within its ecosystem (such as JITO, Pyth, Render, etc.). A prosperous ecosystem is the fundamental guarantee of the value of public chains. Many times, the early launch of ecosystem projects is a leading indicator that SOL is about to rise.
3. Using volatility for grid trading: On platforms like Gate, I set up grid trading on the SOL/USDT trading pair. By automating low buys and high sells within the wide range of $120-$200, I successfully captured profits during multiple fluctuations in the market, accumulating additional chips.
4. Keep a close eye on BTC trends and macro news: As an Altcoin, SOL's movement is highly correlated with Bitcoin. I will closely monitor BTC's movements and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy statements, which are often important references for determining short-term buying and selling points.

Dear friends at Gate.io Square, what are your thoughts on the year-end price of SOL? Feel free to share your opinions!

#SOL价格预测 #Gate广场创作点亮中秋