These three time points at the end of #美国提高关税 may directly determine the trend of the crypto market: December 1, the Fed stops quantitative tightening; December 4, Ethereum’s technical upgrade goes live; December 18, the interest rate cut decision is announced.

But there’s an even bigger variable disrupting things—the yield on Japanese long-term government bonds has recently soared. This means the low-interest funding party of the past thirty years is coming to an end. The most troublesome part is that carry trades are starting to unwind, with large amounts of capital flowing back to Japan, putting global markets under pressure from shrinking liquidity.

In this environment, the risks of highly leveraged positions are increasing sharply. Risk assets as a whole are under pressure, and market volatility will also increase.

The strategy at this stage is actually quite clear: keep a close eye on the developments at these three key dates, keep your positions within a safe range, and hold enough cash on hand until signals become clear. The Ethereum upgrade may bring some localized opportunities, but before the overall direction is clear, cash is more important than anything else. It won’t be too late to buy the dip once the trend is obvious.