$BTC | Additional Context

The next FOMC meeting is December 9–10th. I expected this entire retracement and opened short positions at 92K.

We also have a new monthly open. Usually a area where we can form the early month pivot for trend direction. We still have about a week to go, which means there’s room for additional downside liquidity hunts. However, the broader expectation is a move upward heading into FOMC.

As for where that pre FOMC high will form, that’s impossible to call. What matters most is timing and execution once key levels are tested. From here, BTC will either establish a higher low or sweep the current 80K lows before making a push upward into the meeting.

This outlook is based on my confluences and historical behavior. We’ve rallied in both of the last 2 instances when rate cuts were announced, and there’s currently a 75% probability of another cut. That sets up a likely "sell-the-news" scenario, a bullish catalyst for price to move into beforehand.