The US dollar is weak, gold frequently hits new highs, and many people are optimistic about the bull market in 2026. This line of thinking seems reasonable on the surface, but the key issue is—there isn't enough time.

What truly tests people is often not a sharp decline, but a stalemate phase where you think "just hold on a little longer." The market is most likely to trap investors at this time.

From a long-term cycle perspective, BTC's technical indicators still point to one direction: downtrend. Signals of this level almost never fail. Recall the period from late 2021 to early 2022—after BTC peaked at 69,000, the price oscillated around 50,000 for a long time, and everyone thought it was just a normal correction, and the bull market would return. But what happened? The real turning point wasn't a price plunge but that the trend had already reversed.

Looking at the monthly chart technicals: BTC's death cross was confirmed as early as November 2021. The subsequent movement was simply following the established direction—two major halvings and two 0.618 retracements, typical of a large-scale downtrend. The "black swan" event in February 2022 seemed sudden, but in reality, the cycle direction was already set; the event was just an accelerant. This isn't conspiracy theory; the cycle's trajectory has been clear all along.

The current issue isn't "whether negative news will appear," but "when will the negative news hit." A mature market never reveals bad news in advance; those sudden, unknown risks are the most deadly. When the long-term cycle trend is downward, any small fluctuation will be amplified infinitely.

The conclusion is simple: instead of betting on "maybe tomorrow it will turn bullish," it's better to face reality— the current structure doesn't look like a bull market yet. Surviving is much more important than catching a rebound; defense comes before offense.

Treat yourself as if you're trading in a bear market, so you won't blindly act before the trend reverses. The market only rewards those who follow the cycle, understand the rhythm, and can patiently wait.