#大户持仓动态 Tonight's economic data will be released. By understanding these three scenarios, you can predict the market trend.

Let's start with the first one: CPI data is hawkish while unemployment data is improving (or unemployment claims are decreasing). At this point? A double whammy is coming. Risk assets will suffer, the US dollar will strengthen, US Treasury yields will soar like rockets, and gold prices will plummet. Of course, $BTC and $ETH shouldn't be expected to perform better either.

Conversely, the second scenario is the one to enjoy: CPI data is dovish, and unemployment data worsens (unemployment claims increase). This is a festival for risk assets, gold will also rise, and the US dollar and Treasury yields will be under dual pressure, significantly easing market sentiment.

The most interesting is the third scenario—when data shows inconsistency, such as hawkish CPI but worsening unemployment, creating a reverse combination. In the short term, there will be fierce shakeouts, but in the long run, CPI still rules, and unemployment data can only weaken the magnitude of volatility. In other words, CPI is the true anchor influencing the long-term trend.