2025-12-18 14:20:29

Just saw the US November CPI data, and the results are somewhat surprising.

Year-over-year growth is 2.7%, well below the market expectation of 3.1%. Core CPI year-over-year is 2.6%, also not reaching the expected 3%. In simple terms, the US inflation cooling is happening much faster than everyone imagined.

For a moment, many people's first reaction was: this should mean a rally, right? Such a big piece of good news.

Logically, it makes sense. Rapid inflation cooling increases the Fed's room to cut interest rates next year, and the scale of easing might also become more aggressive. For global risk assets, especially highly liquidity-sensitive assets like Bitcoin, this is fundamentally positive.

But the market has never been that simple. There are two things that must be understood.

First is the disconnect between "expectation" and "reality." Over the past two months, the market had already priced in the "rate cut expectations," likely reflecting a lot of positive sentiment in the price. Now that "reality" has finally caught up with "expectation," we need to be cautious of short-term corrections triggered by the "good news" being fully priced in. As the old saying goes: buy the rumor, sell the fact.

Second is the difference between "inflation" and "recession." Rapid inflation cooling is of course good, but if the real reason behind these numbers is a sharp contraction in economic demand, market sentiment could quickly shift from "rate cut frenzy" to "recession worries." That would be a different scenario altogether.

So don’t get caught up in superficial questions like "Should it go up or down?"

The key question is whether this data confirms the beautiful story of a "soft landing" or exposes the hidden risks of a "hard landing."

From a trading perspective, the thinking is actually quite clear: if the market simply interprets this as liquidity positive, the upward momentum might continue. But if subsequent economic data weaken and recession trades start, after the short-term euphoria, the market could very well enter a risk-off phase.

Data is just a fuse; how the market interprets and plays it out is the real drama. Buckle up, as the upcoming volatility might just be getting started.

BTC-0.47%

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StealthMoon

· 2025-12-19 18:44

Buying the expectation and selling the fact is a really brutal tactic, I'm already tired of it... --- Soft landing or hard landing, that's the real gamble; everything else is just虚的 --- Good inflation data ≠ truly good; it depends on how the subsequent economic data turns out --- After this wave of market狂欢...嘿嘿 --- Just waiting to see the moment when the recession trades start, that's when it gets interesting --- Honestly, it's still a matter of interpretation; the data itself can't prove anything --- The feeling that good news has been exhausted is getting closer; I can smell it... --- Those rushing in are all bagholders; the real show is still ahead --- Is this wave a soft landing or just self-deception? Time will tell --- Large room for rate cuts ≠ guaranteed cuts; this logic is too straightforward

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StakeTillRetire

· 2025-12-18 14:43

Buying the rumor and selling the fact is truly a bloody lesson. How many people have already suffered this loss? The recession trade is over, and the current celebration has become a joke. Be cautious. Soft landing or hard landing, that’s the real factor that determines the future direction. A drop in CPI isn't necessarily a good thing; it depends on what’s really happening in the economy. When positive news is exhausted, it’s just a trap. Someone always falls into it every time.

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BearMarketMonk

· 2025-12-18 14:39

Buy the rumor, sell the fact. This wave will be cut again. When good news is exhausted, it's the beginning of a bear market. Don't be blinded by interest rate cut expectations. Soft landing or hard landing, it all depends on what the subsequent economic data says. I'm a bit confused. Is it really a good thing that inflation cools down so quickly? If a recession trade starts, those who enter now will be trapped. The phrase "fasten your seatbelt" is said harshly, it really feels like a storm is coming. The market is always interpreting data, not trading based on data. That's the trap. Liquidity short-term frenzy, but in the long run, it still depends on whether the fundamentals can hold up.

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