Key cryptocurrencies: BTC, ZEC, XRP

Today, December 19th, the Bank of Japan is set to make another big move—most likely announcing a fourth rate hike, each by 0.25%. As soon as this news breaks, veteran traders will probably quickly recall the previous three instances in their minds.

Let's review the previous figures:
• March 2024 → Bitcoin dropped sharply by 24%
• July’s second round → decline expanded to 30%
• January 2025 → even more intense, a 32% drop

Every time a rate hike is announced, the market seems to hit the pause button. The pattern of three consecutive instances is clear, which can easily lead people to believe in some kind of "curse."

But here’s the problem—markets are never simply about copying and pasting. Global liquidity is changing, and with so many institutional ETF funds involved, market sentiment and macro expectations are not fixed. Relying solely on historical data to fit the current situation is likely to lead to pitfalls.

What will happen this time? A rate hike doesn’t necessarily mean a decline; the market’s reaction depends on whether the expectations have already been priced in. If the news has been fully anticipated, it could even serve as a new support level.

What’s your take? Share your thoughts in the comments.