Recently, the phrase "all the bad news is out" has been trending in the community. The 91% expectation of interest rate hikes indeed scared many people, causing BTC to drop ahead of time. But there's more to it than meets the eye.

What are the big players doing? Under the guise of "expectations," they are desperately shorting and creating panic. Retail investors see the decline and cut their losses, while the shorts are accumulating positions. When the actual event occurs and the news is announced, reverse operations begin—shorts close their positions for profit, and they start pushing the price back up. What remains are scattered accounts wiped out in liquidation. This is the classic "buy the rumor, sell the fact" scheme in financial markets to trap retail investors.

So the question is: will there be a rebound? In the short term, mainstream coins like ETH and BTC do have room for a rebound. But you need to be clear—this is most likely not a "bullish signal," but more of a "panic wave." Why? The tightening of monetary policy in Japan is an ironclad fact, and global liquidity is shrinking—these are hard constraints. Even if the rebound is fierce, there is a ceiling to the height.

Honestly, skilled traders try to catch rebounds in this kind of market, risking it all for short-term gains. Ordinary investors? The best attitude is to watch and not chase highs. Whenever they see a rebound, they shout "bull market," only to be repeatedly knocked down, and retail investors end up losing.

When will the real spring arrive? We have to wait until the Federal Reserve shifts its policy and liquidity truly loosens—that will be the start of a major market trend. Until then, every rebound could be a trap. Manage your risks well and don't be swayed by short-term emotions.