2025-12-19 23:40:14

#数字资产市场洞察 📊 The probability of the Federal Reserve "holding steady" in January surpasses 73%, and the market is waiting for the signal 🔔

The latest data sends a strong signal — the chance that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates at 3.5%-3.75% in January next year has surged to 73.4%, with the actual probability of a rate cut dropping to only 26.6%. After three consecutive cuts, the Fed seems to be settling in for a break.

The underlying logic is actually quite tangled. The November CPI indeed returned to the 2% range, which looks good, but economists are pouring cold water on it — government shutdowns may have distorted the data, so don’t take it too seriously. Meanwhile, the employment situation is a mixed bag: non-farm payrolls exceeded expectations, but the unemployment rate soared to 4.6%. This "good and bad" scenario leaves the Fed completely uncertain.

Even more concerning is that there are already internal disagreements within the Fed. In the December policy meeting, three votes opposed, with some wanting to aggressively cut by 50 basis points, while others preferred to hold steady. Such divisions are rare since 2019.

Powell has already said that "policy depends on data," but the key is that the December employment report will only be released in early January, which is the real variable. Plus, rumors of a change in Fed chair abound, and Trump has explicitly stated a desire for "aggressive rate cuts," making the political and policy game even more complex and unpredictable.

The 73.4% sounds very certain, but the ceiling is fragile. Current interest rates are still above the market’s perceived neutral level, and officials like Goolsbee have already signaled that "there could be significant rate cuts next year." Once data fluctuates beyond expectations, the probability can reverse instantly.

Next, keep an eye on these points: December non-farm payroll data, core inflation trends, and new developments regarding the Fed chair candidate. Every piece of news could cause the market to reprice assets like BTC, ETH, BNB.

BTC-0.71%

ETH-1.33%

BNB-1.44%

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SleepTrader

· 12-22 12:55

What is the Fed waiting for? It feels like the whole situation is being held hostage by data. The promised policy was supposed to follow the data, but now no one can say for sure.

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DataOnlooker

· 12-21 17:41

73%? Wake up, this data is more unstable than Powell's determination, it will scatter with a gust of wind.

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MetaReckt

· 12-21 12:03

73%? I think this probability can be directly shattered by a tweet from Trump haha

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gaslight_gasfeez

· 12-20 00:10

73%？Forget it, I bet on the opposite. The Federal Reserve is the best at issuing smoke screens. --- It's another "follow the data" from Powell, but the data itself is full of water. This joke has been overused. --- Internal disputes like this actually indicate a rate cut; everyone should cut. --- Waiting for the January employment report? That's a clear signal of a reversal. The charts will need to be redrawn then. --- Political games are really annoying. Just one word from Trump and the coin price jumps 20%. The fundamentals are already dead. --- Goolsbee is hinting at a significant rate cut. 73% simply can't hold, and a reversal is only a matter of time. --- These three coins will catch up in the next couple of days. Is it still possible to jump in now? --- It feels like a story is being fabricated. Non-farm payroll data is the real trump card; everything else is noise. --- No one is discussing the variable of the Fed Chair change. That’s the real black swan. --- Interest rates are still high, yet people say they won't cut. That logic doesn't add up.

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pvt_key_collector

· 12-20 00:09

That 73% figure, it feels like it could collapse at any moment. The Fed is already arguing internally like this, so there's no certainty—just waiting for the December non-farm payroll data to shake things up.

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LiquidityWhisperer

· 12-19 23:59

73% Haha, Fed is playing psychological warfare. We've seen situations where the data comes out and immediately reverses direction.

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CryptoSurvivor

· 12-19 23:55

73% is actually false; the key is to wait for the December non-farm payrolls and the new chairman's moves. One data point can reverse the trend, so don't be fooled by this probability.

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AirdropHarvester