#以太坊行情解读 $ETH What signals does the current trend reveal? Looking at the recent technicals, you can feel the tension building up, ready to explode.

The Bollinger Bands are already squeezed tightly—price is compressed between 3017 and 2811, and volatility has dropped to critical levels. This state often indicates an imminent breakout. The MACD green bars are weakening, and the fast and slow lines are starting to turn, suggesting the bearish momentum is waning. As long as it can hold above the midline (around 2920), the hourly chart will confirm a golden cross, and the rebound structure will be solidified.

How to interpret key levels? Holding above 2950 (the purple MA dense zone) gives a chance to challenge the previous high of 3017; but if it falls below 2880 (Bollinger lower band support), it may need to retrace to around 2820 to find support.

On-chain data is even more interesting. Whale addresses have increased their holdings over the past 24 hours (according to Santiment data), and net outflows from exchanges are expanding, reflecting a strong reluctance to sell—large holders are hesitant to move. The funding rate for contracts remains neutral to slightly bullish, with no signs of extreme leverage buildup, indicating the consolidation structure is still healthy.

Macro and news factors are aligning. The final approval window for the Ethereum ETF is getting closer, and institutional holdings are steadily rising (as shown in Coinshares’ weekly report). These potential positives have not yet been fully priced in by the market. Plus, the Fed’s easing expectations are heating up, and as a leading risk asset, cryptocurrencies are gradually showing signs of liquidity siphoning.

What about the outlook? This is the tail end of the consolidation, and the direction is imminent. In the triangle convergence pattern, I lean toward a move up first, then down—the volume breakout above 2950 would quickly test the 3050 resistance; if it loses 2880, then it depends on whether 2800 can hold. The resonance between on-chain data and technicals suggests every pullback is an opportunity to accumulate. Ethereum’s medium-term story remains solid.

Trading idea: You can place a long order at 2920 with a stop-loss at 2880 and a target of 2980; once it breaks above 3017, chase the long towards 3080. Keep position sizes light, first identify the trend, then add on confirmation.