📌 December 22｜Key Briefing

1. Regulatory and Institutional Level - Medium to Long-term Positive Outlook

The U.S. has appointed a Bitcoin-supporting CFTC chairman for the first time.
→ The clear shift in regulatory attitude has improved the institutional environment for the cryptocurrency market in the US and Canada, providing structural benefits to BTC and compliant exchanges in the medium to long term.

CFTC: Congress is about to pass the cryptocurrency market structure bill.
→ The United States is expected to become the global Bitcoin center, as policy uncertainty decreases.

Bank of America rebuilds core financial infrastructure, laying out a future on the blockchain.
→ Involving tokenized deposits, custody, and settlement, indicating that traditional finance is systematically embracing on-chain finance.

2. Institutions and Fund Trends - Slightly Bullish

Trump Media has increased its holdings by 300 BTC (total holdings 11,542 BTC)
→ Political capital continues to allocate real assets to BTC, with a clear funding stance.

Peter Thiel & Palmer Luckey raise $350 million for Bitcoin bank Erebor
→ High-net-worth capital continues to bet on Bitcoin financial infrastructure.

3. Macroeconomic Environment - Differentiation

European Central Bank: No interest rate hikes should be expected in the future.
→ The global liquidity environment is relatively loose, which is friendly to risk assets in the medium term.

Traders bet on US Treasury yields rising to 4%.
→ Short-term interest rate fluctuations are still present, creating temporary pressure on cryptocurrencies.

Gold hits a new all-time high
→ Risk aversion sentiment is rising, leading to a short-term diversion of funds, which is unfavorable for BTC performance.

4. Market Risk Warning - Short-term Bearish

BTC fell below $88,000, with $28.5 billion in options expiring on Friday (the largest in history).
→ The volatility significantly increases before and after expiration, beware of spikes and emotional sell-offs.

2025 Asset Performance Comparison: BTC Year-to-Date -5.75%, ETH -11.58%
→ The overall cryptocurrency market has clearly underperformed traditional assets, and the market is in a stage of confidence recovery.

In short, the long-term logic is being continuously validated (regulation + institutions + traditional finance), but the short-term is still in a period of "macro disturbances + options pressure + declining risk appetite". In layman's terms, there is short-term volatility, while the medium to long-term structure is biased upwards.