Core Situation Assessment: Is it a "bottoming out" or a "downward correction"?

• Short-term support confirmation: ETH spiked back up around $2,962, indicating that there is indeed strong buying pressure from long positions and short position liquidation in this range.
• Indicator repair needs: 15 minutes/1 hour KDJ is in the low oversold position. Technically, a pullback is needed to digest the divergence rate from the sharp fall in the early morning.
• Trend determination: rebound rather than reversal. Overall, the 4-hour and daily charts still lean bearish. Therefore, the upcoming strategy is: to re-enter short positions at high levels > to speculate on short-term longs at support.
Shorting again at a high position (main strategy, following the medium-term trend)
The ideal next secondary short point will slightly shift downwards:
• First resistance zone: $3,010 - $3,025 (1 hour Bollinger middle band).
• Second resistance area: $3,040 - $3,055 (near the point of fall in the early morning).

• If the price rebounds to around $3,025 and a upper shadow appears, you can re-enter a short position (the position can be set to 1/2 of the previous one).
• Stop loss: Set at $3,075 (must stop loss before breaking previous high).
• Take profit: Looking back at the $2,950 area, which is a dense liquidation zone for long positions.
3. Risk/Opportunity Weight Before Christmas
• 24-hour risk: If it falls below $2,950, it will trigger the $850 million long positions liquidation we calculated earlier. At that time, the market will drop vertically, directly looking at $2,880.
• Christmas market: Historically, there is often a behavior of "false short" followed by a surge on Christmas Eve (23-24).
Core observation: Looking for the "golden pit"
Liquidity hunting (high win rate pin bar long)
• Ultimate entry point: $2,880 - $2,915
• Logic: * Dense liquidation zone: The $2,950 we mentioned before is just the first line of defense. The real bulls' last line of defense and the dense liquidation area are around $2,880 - $2,900.
• Daily level support: Referring to the daily K line, the lower Bollinger Band is currently extending upward, forming strong support around $2,880.
• Trading suggestion: Do not place a direct order, but wait for the price to rapidly spike down and break below $2,950. Enter at market price when it quickly reduces volume around $2,900, or even when a long lower wick appears on the 15-minute chart.
• Stop Loss: $2,840 (if it falls below the previous low, the Christmas market will basically be declared over).
• Target level: Looking back at $3,050.
Confirm reversal (safe to go long on the right side)
• Confirm entry position: $3,035 - $3,045 (after stabilizing)
• Logic: * Breakthrough Resistance: The starting point of this wave of fall is at $3,060. If the price can recover $3,030 and stabilize at the 1-hour level, it indicates that the breakdown is a complete "Bear Trap."
• Christmas market begins: Holding steady at this level usually signifies the official start of the Christmas market, targeting $3,300.
• Stop loss: $2,990.
• Target range: $3,200 - $3,350.
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