#Анализ current market conditions

Data shows that BTC fell below $85,425, and the total liquidation of long positions on major CEX will reach $1.653 billion. Conversely, if BTC surpasses $94,065, the total liquidation of short positions on major CEX will reach $1.025 billion.
If ETH falls below $2906, the total liquidation force of long positions on major CEX will be $1,166,000,000. Conversely, if ETH exceeds $3186, the total liquidation force of short positions on major CEX will be $727,000,000.
What are the likely market movements in the near future?
🔍 Current market situation and settlement scheme
The current market price is right in the middle of the key liquidation area, making the next move unpredictable.
From the perspective of liquidation intensity, a notable phenomenon is that the potential liquidation intensity of long positions is significantly higher than that of short positions. This means that if the price drops below the support level, causing a chain liquidation of (BTC: $1.653 billion, ETH: $1.166 billion), it will create more severe selling pressure than a breakout upward, where short position liquidations are triggered at (BTC: $1.025 billion, ETH: $727 million). This in itself creates additional psychological and actual resistance to market growth.
📈 The main contradiction affecting short-term trends
The current market is under the influence of various forces, with the main contradictions focused on:
1. Strong pressure on the shoulder against weak upward momentum
In such an environment, even good news is often met with a "risk-off" approach rather than continued growth. Since the beginning of this year, the market has confirmed several times that "leveraged positions" at high levels are one of the main reasons for trend interruptions.
2. The game of "slow variables" and "fast variables"
· Slow variables (long-term benefits): include continuous purchases by institutional investors through ETFs, the growth of stablecoin volume (annual blockchain transaction volume reached $46 trillion) and the development of areas such as RWA. This is the foundation supporting the market.
· Rapid variables (short-term shocks): the main ones are macroeconomic risks, position overcrowding, and loan liquidation. These factors often play a crucial role in the short term, interrupting trends driven by slow variables.
3. New characteristics under the guidance of institutions
In 2025, institutional funds became the absolute dominant force in the market. This brought a dual influence:
· Positive side: provided a more stable long-term demand for purchasing (, for example, the American spot Bitcoin ETF attracted more than 3.5 billion dollars in just one week in the fourth quarter of 2025 ).
· New risks: institutional funds are becoming more sensitive to interest rates and other macroeconomic indicators, which strengthens the connection between the cryptocurrency market and traditional financial markets, and volatility may be amplified due to macroeconomic changes.
🔮 Forecast for the future: fluctuations at high levels and a breakthrough in the chosen direction
Overall, the market is likely to go through the following stages:
1. Short-term ( in the coming weeks ): the market expects continued fluctuations in the key liquidation zone. A large number of buy and sell orders will attract the price like a magnet, and any attempt in either direction could trigger mass liquidations, leading to sharp instant fluctuations. Trading sentiments will tend to be cautious.
2. Mid-term period ( in the coming months ): the market needs new catalysts to break the deadlock and choose a direction. Potential catalysts may include:
· Macro level: for example, a clear shift in the interest rate policy of the USA.
· Regulatory aspect: implementation of important policies (such as the following details of the GENIUS Law).
· Financial aspect: The ETF is experiencing a constant influx of huge funds, exceeding expectations.
Given that there is more pressure to liquidate long positions, and significant pullbacks occurred after several rate hikes last year, the resistance on a breakout upward will be greater. Without a strong catalyst, the likelihood of transitioning to test support and unwinding leverage is relatively higher after a failed attempt to test the upper resistance in the market.
Simply put, in the near future, the market is likely to be "磨". The probability of a direct one-sided sharp breakout is low; it is more likely that there will be high-volatility fluctuations at the current key price level, awaiting new clear signals from the macroeconomy or regulators. For traders, "low leverage" and "wide stop losses" are key to protecting themselves in such an environment. #BTC行情分析