The Christmas options expiration scale hits a record, how is Bitcoin's short-term fluctuation?

[Chain News] Bitcoin continues to be under pressure this week. As of December 23, the price has fallen to around 87400 USD, getting closer to the 90000 USD mark. From a longer time frame, this wave of market activity has been hindered for several weeks, not giving long positions a chance to breathe.

The culprit points to the options expiration event this Friday. On the eve of Christmas, the Deribit platform will see a “mass liquidation”—approximately 300,000 Bitcoin options contracts are set to expire, translating to a notional value of about $23.7 billion. Including Ethereum options, the total expiration size reaches $28.5 billion, doubling compared to the same period last year. What does this mean? It means that a large number of positions will be reconfigured or liquidated, and the mechanical selling pressure in the market is difficult to avoid.

Interestingly, while the market is volatile, order still exists. The current main positions are concentrated around the two key execution prices of $85,000 and $100,000, forming relatively clear support and pressure. However, liquidity has clearly tightened. Overnight, the open interest of Bitcoin perpetual contracts evaporated by about $3 billion, and Ethereum also shrank by around $2 billion. This rapid deleveraging pace indicates that market participants are defending against the uncertainty of the holiday.

Analysts are somewhat optimistic. They believe that the adjustment during Christmas week is basically a “mechanical” operation—expiration delivery, position rotation, and risk aversion are all predictable. Once market participation returns in January, this pressure may gradually ease. However, the current days are a bit tough.

Numbers don't lie. Since the beginning of the year, Bitcoin has fallen by 6%. The past six months have been even worse, with a cumulative decline of nearly 20%. At this rate, the fourth quarter could become the worst-performing quarter in the past eight years. Against this backdrop, no one dares to be too aggressive.