#美联储降息 The Federal Reserve's 25 basis point rate cut this time seems unremarkable, but the signals behind it are key. With three consecutive rate cuts and a total of 75 basis points cut this year, this number sounds pleasant, but I increasingly feel this is an "eagle-style rate cut"—seemingly friendly, but actually applying the brakes on future policies.

The most heartbreaking part is the internal divisions within the Federal Reserve. Five members support continuing with easing, two advocate for holding steady, and three are indecisive. This kind of internal conflict has been rare in recent years; what does it signify? It means that the market consensus is disintegrating. Powell may hint in his speech that "don't expect further rate cuts without significant weakness in employment," which directly shuts the door on additional easing in January next year.

For us on the chain, this is very dangerous. Many projects and narratives are bubbles inflated under the expectation of interest rate cuts. Now that policy signals have become ambiguous, the operational logic of the main capital will also change. The economic data released in March and June next year will be the real test—before that, be wary of projects supported by "endless liquidity."

Don't be blinded by the imagination of "continued interest rate cuts." Instead, ask yourself: if the liquidity of this project really tightens, how long can the fundamentals hold up? This is the key to surviving longer.