Crises and opportunities often lie just a layer of paper apart.

Remember? When LUNA and FTX collapsed one after another, the entire market plunged into panic, with Bitcoin dropping to around $15,000, and everywhere there were voices saying "This is really the end." Pessimism was overwhelming. But a year later, Bitcoin hit a new all-time high. This kind of drama isn’t the first time in the crypto world, and it certainly won’t be the last.

Interestingly, the reasons for major market drops vary greatly each time—some due to technical issues, some due to policy changes—but what truly drives price fluctuations, frankly, is human sentiment. Sometimes greed drives people crazy; other times, fear causes panic.

Look, here we go again. The Fear & Greed Index has dropped to 15, creating an "Extreme Fear" situation. Many people are once again bearish on blockchain, saying the dream is dead. At this moment, I calm myself and open my trading account. Why? Because I know this is a pattern.

**The pattern is right here**

The only certainty in the crypto market is that sentiment swings constantly between 0 and 100. Below 20 is called Extreme Fear, above 80 is Extreme Greed. The collective psychology of market participants always swings between these two extremes—that’s an iron law.

The essence of contrarian investing is actually simple: when others are greedily buying, you should be cautious; when others are so scared they’re about to pee their pants, you need to dare to act. When extreme panic hits the market and sell-offs flood in, asset prices are often hammered well below their true value. That’s when you should take action, and your success rate naturally increases.

But here’s a key point—contrarian investing isn’t gambling-style bottom-fishing. You need to look at data, find signals, and judge based on facts rather than feelings. I usually focus on three types of indicators to identify real "golden opportunities": technical support levels, on-chain anomalies, and the actual behavior of market participants.

Data speaks. When retail investors panic-sell but large on-chain holders quietly accumulate, that contrast is worth pondering. When the price hits a key support level and holds steady, that’s also a signal. Combining these signs can help you distinguish genuine opportunities from false rebounds.

Of course, no one can perfectly time the market. But making rational decisions during extreme fear is smarter than getting carried away by greed at the peak. When the index drops to 15, I see it as an invitation.