2025 International Gold Price Outlook: Spot Gold Market Analysis and Investment Strategies

Signals from the Gold Market: Key Reasons Behind the Uptrend

The increase in gold demand triggered last year continues into this year. As global economic uncertainty widens and geopolitical volatility intensifies, gold’s status as a safe-haven asset is further reinforced. What market participants are currently paying attention to is not just the price increase, but the fact that this trend is based on structural factors.

In fact, as of July 5th, the domestic spot gold price was 635,000 won per 3.75g of 1 don(, representing a 43% increase compared to the same period last year, and international gold prices recorded approximately $3,337.04 per ounce. This is a 27% rise since the beginning of the year and a 39% increase compared to a year ago, which is significant considering it is summer.

Four Structural Factors Behind International Gold Price Movements

) Diversification of the Currency System

The de-dollarization policies promoted by various countries signify a restructuring of the international payment system. Efforts such as China’s push for the internationalization of the yuan, India’s expansion of the rupee, and Russia and Iran’s attempts to reduce dependence on the dollar are all in the same context. These currency diversification movements naturally increase demand for gold as an alternative asset, forming the foundation for rising international gold prices.

Deterioration of the Global Risk Environment

Historically, gold has functioned as the best refuge asset during economic crises. During the 2008 financial crisis, the 2011 Eurozone debt crisis, and the 2020 pandemic, gold prices surged. Currently, multiple geopolitical risks such as US-China trade tensions, the Ukraine situation, and instability in the Middle East are unfolding simultaneously, increasing investors’ preference for safe assets.

Warning Signs in the Economies of Advanced Countries

Inflationary pressures in the US and weakening growth momentum in Europe are increasing the likelihood of central banks lowering interest rates. In a low-interest environment, the relative attractiveness of gold, which yields no interest, rises. Additionally, concerns about economic slowdown drive investors toward safe assets, directly boosting gold demand.

Relationship Between Monetary Policy and Gold Prices

As seen in the case where gold prices surged after the Fed’s 50bp rate cut in September last year, central bank policy signals have an immediate impact on international gold prices. Expectations of further rate cuts lower the opportunity cost of holding gold and stimulate demand.

Gold Market Outlook for the Remaining Period in 2025

Experts generally favor an upward scenario. According to a Financial Times survey at the beginning of the year, the year-end target was $2,795 per ounce, but already surpassing $3,300 at present.

Latest forecasts from major investment banks include:

• JP Morgan: $3,675 target by year-end ###July update(
• Goldman Sachs, Citi Group: $3,000 target )already achieved(
• A very few bearish forecasts: $2,500 )low likelihood of realization(

Considering that more than half of the year has passed and current prices already exceed many forecasts, it is highly likely that gold prices will remain strong into the second half of 2025. However, some analysts mention the possibility of corrections in the latter part, so investors should also implement appropriate risk management strategies.

Current Technical Characteristics of the Gold Market

Currently, domestic gold and international gold prices are following very similar trend lines. The Korea Gold Exchange chart shows a sharp rise until May, and recently a slight consolidation, but no clear downward signals. This can be interpreted as a technical sign indicating a temporary correction followed by a potential rebound.

If you are considering investing in gold, it is wise to review both the structural factors influencing the current market and the long-term outlook for 2025, while also establishing position sizes and stop-loss strategies in advance.