Ethereum at Critical Junction — Will $3,000 Hold or Crack Under Pressure?

ETH is caught between buyers and sellers at a pivotal moment. Trading around $2.95K after testing as low as $2.89K over the past 24 hours, Ethereum faces a complex technical setup where the next directional move could define the near-term outlook. The $3,000 psychological level has become the market’s line in the sand.

The Price Rejection Story

Ethereum attempted to stabilize above $3,180 but encountered selling pressure that pushed it lower through $3,150 and $3,120. The bearish move accelerated toward the $3,000 zone, with lows printed near $3,026 before buyers finally stepped in to arrest the decline. What’s important now: this bounce isn’t clean. ETH remains trapped below the 100-hour Simple Moving Average and beneath the $3,200 level — both conditions signaling that the short-term momentum remains tilted toward sellers.

Adding another layer of resistance is a bearish trend line positioned around $3,175 on the hourly timeframe. This means any recovery attempt is likely to encounter supply before reaching “safe” territory.

The Upside Roadmap: Three Gates to Recovery

For bulls to regain control, ETH must navigate an ascending ladder of resistance:

First gate — $3,150 zone: This level coincides with the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the drop from $3,273 down to $3,026. A decisive push here is the starting point.

Second gate — $3,175–$3,180 band: Here sits the downtrend line that has been limiting relief bounces. Clearing this zone confirms that selling pressure is weakening.

The flip point — $3,200: This is where the narrative changes. A convincing break above $3,200 would shift ETH from “bouncing off lows” to “beginning a genuine recovery wave.” Once above $3,200, upside targets open toward $3,250, then $3,320 and potentially $3,400 in the near term.

The Downside Trap: Where Real Danger Lurks

If the bounce falters, the support structure becomes crucial:

• $3,080 provides initial cushion
• $3,050 is the critical hold level — a break below here dramatically shifts risk
• $3,000 remains the psychological battleground
• $2,940 marks the next meaningful support zone

The spread between $3,050 and $3,000 will determine whether ETH is merely consolidating or entering a deeper retest phase. Conviction selling below $3,050 would signal that lower targets are back on the table.

Technical Indicators Flash Mixed Signals

This is where the setup gets interesting. The hourly MACD has begun showing bullish momentum, and the RSI reading above 50 suggests intraday buying interest has returned. However, these improvements haven’t yet translated into a price breakout. Indicators can improve while price remains capped by overhead resistance — which is precisely the situation unfolding now.

In essence: the technicals are setting the stage for an upside break, but price action must confirm it. Until ETH clears $3,200 decisively, every rally remains tactical rather than structural.