After reaching a historic high, can silver still rise in 2026?

**Viewing Investment Opportunities in Precious Metals from the Supply Crisis**

Since 2025, silver has performed remarkably, with a year-to-date increase of 87%, surpassing gold's 57% gain during the same period. According to the raw material price trend chart, this rally is far from a fleeting phenomenon. By the end of November, silver futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange reached a historic high of $54.65 per ounce, with spot prices also climbing to $54.22 per ounce.

**Supply Shortages as the Core Driving Force for the Rise**

Behind silver's surge are deep-seated supply pressures. The market has faced continuous shortages for several years. Currently, in response to the anticipated risk of tariffs imposed by the United States, large quantities of silver are being concentrated and shipped to the New York Exchange, causing inventories on other global exchanges to plummet sharply. This inventory transfer triggers the activation of the futures arbitrage mechanism, further pushing up prices. Notably, the COMEX silver December 12 contract has entered the delivery notice period, and the tight supply situation may continue to amplify market volatility.

**Federal Reserve Policy Environment Supports Precious Metals**

In addition to supply factors, the accommodative policy environment is also boosting silver prices. Recent dovish signals from Federal Reserve officials have led the market to expect an 85% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December. Expectations of rate cuts have increased demand for non-interest-bearing assets, leading to a collective rally across the precious metals sector, with gold approaching the $4,200 mark, and silver, platinum, and others strengthening alongside.

**Structural Support in 2026 Remains**

Looking ahead to next year, the silver rally is far from over. Michael DiRienzo, Executive Director of the World Silver Survey, believes that structural shortages are likely to persist into 2026. Deutsche Bank explicitly states that a silver deficit will continue, with an expected average price of around $55 per ounce next year, and silver ETF holdings are expected to surpass the highs of 2021.

Goldman Sachs further points out that, amid the Federal Reserve's easing cycle and diversified asset allocation, institutional and private investors continue to view silver as an alternative to gold. From the long-term trend of raw material price charts, precious metals remain in an upward cycle, and non-precious metals like silver are also benefiting from this wave of investment.