Many friends asked about the ETH market in August—after the price surged to $4,868, it then declined directly. Many people followed the trend and bought in, only to get trapped. Honestly, this was indeed a bull trap. As someone who has been paying attention to the crypto market over the years, I was warning against chasing highs back then, and now it has been fully validated. Today, I want to analyze ETH's current situation in depth and share my views on the upcoming market.

From a technical perspective, the weekly moving average system is a key indicator for judging bull and bear trends, especially the 50-week simple moving average. ETH has already fallen below the $3,070 50-week moving average, which is no small matter. This signal indicates that the market has shifted from bullish dominance to bearish control, similar to a support level being broken, and the subsequent downward pressure will be significant.

Recently, we have seen some rebounds, with many funds trying to bottom fish at low levels. However, each time the price approaches around $3,454 (corresponding to the 20-week EMA), it is suppressed by selling pressure. Repeated tests of this level have failed to break through effectively, indicating that selling pressure above remains strong. This situation puts the bulls in a rather passive position—they have the desire to rise but lack real momentum for a breakthrough.

From the current chart, ETH has not yet shown a clear sign of stopping its decline. As long as it remains below the $3,070 50-week moving average, the dominance of the bears will not change. In the short term, the key is whether it can hold above the $3,454 resistance level. If this line cannot be maintained, the downside space will further expand.

For the 2026 outlook, we need to observe support levels over a longer cycle. Although the current correction is not small, from a historical cycle perspective, such adjustments have laid the necessary groundwork for subsequent rises. However, now is not the time to chase highs; waiting for clearer signs of a bottom is a more prudent approach.