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On-chain monitoring has triggered alerts again—late at night, news came that another massive Bitcoin transaction from the dormant phase has been awakened. This month, similar "sleeping whale" awakenings have been recorded more than ten times, all of considerable scale.
Interestingly, during the early hours, the screen was filled with discussions about the explosive news of "crypto ETF reshuffle," but I remained largely unaffected. Those who have experienced several bull and bear cycles since 2017 know well not to be led astray by sensational headlines.
The truly important insights are not in the news but on the blockchain. Over the past few weeks, system tracking has identified more than thirty institutional-level transfers exceeding one thousand Bitcoins each. These on-chain footprints do not lie; the stories they tell are completely different from news headlines.
**Surface excitement, but the truth is on the chain**
Recently, market enthusiasm for ETFs has been extremely high. Every week, new asset management firms announce the launch of crypto ETF products, sounding vibrant and promising. But a closer look at on-chain data reveals the truth—funds are actually highly concentrated in the hands of a few giants.
Tracking institutional wallets shows that about 85% of Bitcoin ETF funds flowing into three major asset management giants with management scales exceeding $10 billion. What about the smaller ETFs with big marketing campaigns? On the chain, there’s hardly any real money entering.
A more critical indicator is the continuous net outflow of Bitcoin from exchanges. The supply of Bitcoin held by long-term holders has surged to over 70% of the all-time high. What does this indicate? Genuine Bitcoin is continuously flowing from short-term traders to long-term holders, a pattern that always appears before each bull market.