The Thai Baht's fluctuation is unsustainable! The outlook for the 4 quarters of 2026 remains uncertain.

What will Thailand’s performance look like in 2026? Will the Thai baht strengthen or weaken? The answer isn’t black and white but shades of gray, because the global economy and domestic factors will move unpredictably.

Analyzing the Baht: 2025 Still Unrevealed

Based on THB/USD data from April to October 2025, we see a clear picture that the baht does not move in a straight line. Early in the year, (April-July), it appreciated strongly from 0.0290 to 0.0314, reflecting investor confidence from capital inflows.

However, starting around August, the perspective shifted. The exchange rate hit a ceiling and began to retreat, stopping at 0.0300. This level became a key support. Currently, the market hesitates, unsure of the direction, fluctuating between 0.0304 and 0.0310.

What does this mean? The baht is waiting for new signals, whether from the Fed’s decisions or Thailand’s economic performance in 2026.

2026 Divided into 4 Quarters: Each with Different Drama

According to assessments from SCB Financial Markets, the story of the baht in 2026 will change each quarter.

Quarter 1: Thai economy sluggish, GDP growth below 1.8%

Early 2026, no miracles happen. The Thai economy remains sluggish, with GDP growth slower than usual due to ongoing US customs tariffs. The baht stays around 32-33 per dollar. Investors should prepare defensive strategies, not attack. Hold high-dividend stocks and diversify into small foreign bonds.

Quarter 2: Tourism and local sectors start recovering, P/E pre-14.5x

Mid-year, the “Quick Big Win” policy of the new government begins to show results. The Thai stock market rises to 1,350-1,400 points. Foreign investors start returning, buying short-term bonds and dividend stocks. The baht appreciates slightly. Stronger investors can increase their weight in Thai equities.

Quarter 3: Fed eases, emerging markets rebound

In the second half, the US Federal Reserve continues to cut interest rates. The dollar weakens, and capital flows into Asia. The baht gains strength, breaking through 31. REITs and infrastructure stocks become popular, offering 8-9% dividend yields.

( Quarter 4: Thai economy still cautious, relies on tourism

Late in the year, Thailand’s economy recovers slowly but surely. Tourism remains a bright spot. The Thai stock market fluctuates between 1,350-1,400. The strong baht may start to sway again. Long-term bonds and high-dividend stocks remain attractive.

What Happens When the Baht “Strengthens” or “Weakens”?

) When the baht strengthens 💪

Exporters ###electronics, food, automotive### are pressured because their income converted to baht is less. Tourism benefits because foreign tourists find prices cheaper, encouraging more visits to Thailand.

Imported goods become cheaper, but foreign borrowing costs increase.

( When the baht weakens 📉

Reversal occurs. Exporters need to sell abroad and convert more baht. Tourism suffers because )especially Asian tourists### see higher prices. Import costs for raw materials and resources rise, increasing production costs.

What is the Global Economy Doing?

( US grows 2%, but imports remain strong

Strong demand and purchasing power mean Thai exports to the US perform well. However, if the Fed tightens interest rates, capital may flow back to the US. Thailand must decide.

) Eurozone grows 1.4-1.5%, gradually recovering

European tourists are returning, boosting Thai tourism. Industrial and agricultural exports flourish. Only energy in Europe is rumored to be volatile.

China grows 5.4%, remains strong

High demand for Chinese imports persists. Food imports are still active, with China continuing to import Thai food. However, Chinese real estate investment slows, affecting commodity prices.

Japan grows only 1.2%, yen weakens

A weak yen discourages outbound Japanese tourists but benefits Thai tourism. However, Thailand’s investments in Japan may slow down.

India grows 7%, taking a new seat

This market is heating up, with automotive parts, electronics, and processed foods in high demand.

USD and EUR Fluctuate as the Baht Weakens

USD### strengthens

When investors rush to “escape Thailand,” they move to the US due to attractive US interest rates. Demand for dollars surges, the dollar appreciates, and the baht depreciates.

Side effect: US imports become more expensive, but Thai exports become cheaper, boosting competitiveness in the US market. American tourists in Thailand feel like they are getting a bargain.

Euro moves in tandem with the dollar

When the baht weakens, the euro often strengthens. European tourists may feel squeezed because Thailand becomes more expensive. Thai exports to Europe become more competitive, especially in fruit, seafood, and clothing markets.

What Should Investors Do? 5 Basic Strategies

1. Follow the Baht before deciding on stocks - Will export stocks benefit or suffer? What about import stocks? Gain deeper insight into pricing.

2. If you expect the baht to strengthen - Choose import-related stocks (energy, power plants, retail) because foreign costs decrease.

3. If you expect the baht to weaken - Avoid export stocks ###electronics, food, automotive( as income shrinks.

4. Gold remains relevant - Hold 10% of your portfolio in gold to hedge against market volatility worldwide. Even if the baht strengthens, gradually reduce holdings.

5. Hold US dollar or euro for the next 2-3 quarters - Especially through foreign money market funds to diversify risk.

Summary: 2026 Still Holds Secrets

The baht in 2026 will depend on how the Fed and Thai banks interact. Additionally, the pace of tourism recovery and how quickly the government can spend will matter. The global economy also has unpredictable variables that may emerge unexpectedly.

A word of advice: Don’t isolate the baht. Investment options in Thailand are limited. When making investment decisions, consider currency movements—whether your design will win or lose depends on the baht.